Vasco DA Gama 1-2 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Vasco DA Gama at 52%, yet in-form Botafogo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vasco DA Gama host Botafogo at Estádio São Januário in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 April 2026 at 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Vasco DA Gama have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vasco DA Gama have posted 5W 1D 4L at Estádio São Januário — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Vasco DA Gama are significantly better at Estádio São Januário than their overall form suggests.
Botafogo — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Botafogo's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Botafogo — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Botafogo have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 6 encounters against Vasco DA Gama's 1 victories.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with Botafogo winning.
It is worth noting that Botafogo have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Vasco DA Gama in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Botafogo in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasco DA Gama 49% versus Botafogo 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasco DA Gama 53% | Botafogo 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.99 xG and Botafogo 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.094 / defence 1.133 | Botafogo attack 1.169 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.037. Data: 47 Vasco DA Gama games / 46 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 52% | Draw 22% | Botafogo 26%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Botafogo 3.85. Vasco DA Gama hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasco DA Gama at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Botafogo (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasco DA Gama offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates are neutral: Vasco DA Gama 60% | Botafogo 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio São Januário • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 52% | Draw 22% | Botafogo 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.99 / Botafogo 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.094 / def 1.133 | Botafogo attack 1.169 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Botafogo xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Estádio São Januário.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo?
Vasco DA Gama 1 - 2 Botafogo.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio São Januário.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 52% chance of winning, Botafogo a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo?
Record (6 meetings): Vasco DA Gama 1W | Draws 1 | Botafogo 4W.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo in?
Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Botafogo (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vasco DA Gama's attack rating (1.09) and Botafogo's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Botafogo's attack versus Vasco DA Gama's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
52%
1.93
22%
4.52
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
3.36
1.37
Botafogo xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
14%
7.32
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
4%
27.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.37 for Botafogo, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vasco DA Gama come into this having played 76 games, going 27W 14D 35L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Botafogo sit at 1.87 PPG from 76 outings (40W 22D 14L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five.
Botafogo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Vasco DA Gama — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Vasco DA Gama's home form reads 18W 9D 11L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.66 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Vasco DA Gama are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Botafogo have taken 1.66 points per game from 38 outings (17W 12D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.54 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Botafogo in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
Botafogo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Vasco DA Gama have gone 27W 14D 35L in their last 76 games (1.25 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 40W 22D 14L in their last 76 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasco DA Gama at home or Botafogo away?
Vasco DA Gama's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasco DA Gama at home: 1.66 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Vasco DA Gama or Botafogo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasco DA Gama have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Botafogo in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Botafogo go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2024, when Botafogo won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vasco DA Gama's record when hosting Botafogo specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Vasco DA Gama
1
Draws
5
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo?
From 7 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 1, Botafogo have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 1-2 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Botafogo see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasco DA Gama 53%, Botafogo 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Vasco DA Gama) and 32% (Botafogo).
On the defensive side: Botafogo in 47%; Vasco DA Gama have failed to score in 26% of games; Botafogo in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasco DA Gama play Botafogo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 37% of Botafogo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Vasco DA Gama's recent games and 32% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo tend to score early?
Vasco DA Gama have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Botafogo in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Botafogo defy the odds to beat Vasco DA Gama 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Vasco DA Gama 1-2 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.99 xG and Botafogo 1.37 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.09 / defence 1.13 against Botafogo attack 1.17 / defence 1.17, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 52% | Draw 22% | Botafogo 26%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual Botafogo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 53%, Botafogo 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Botafogo's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.