Sao Paulo 0-0 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Palmeiras (35%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Sao Paulo face Palmeiras.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Palmeiras travel to MorumBIS to take on Sao Paulo in Serie A (matchday 4). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 30 April 2024 at 01:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sao Paulo stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Sao Paulo at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Sao Paulo are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Palmeiras have recorded 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Palmeiras away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Palmeiras are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Palmeiras have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Sao Paulo.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2023, ended Sao Paulo 0–5 Palmeiras — a Palmeiras win.
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Sao Paulo in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Palmeiras in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sao Paulo 51% versus Palmeiras 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sao Paulo 46% | Palmeiras 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sao Paulo surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Palmeiras have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 56% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sao Paulo 1.12 xG and Palmeiras 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sao Paulo attack 0.966 / defence 1.016 | Palmeiras attack 1.019 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.087. Data: built from Sao Paulo's last 41 games and Palmeiras's last 41.
Result probabilities: Sao Paulo 35% | Draw 30% | Palmeiras 35%. Fair-value odds: Sao Paulo 2.88 | Draw 3.29 | Palmeiras 2.86. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 35% to win, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Sao Paulo 35% and Palmeiras 35%, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sao Paulo's last 10 home games and Palmeiras's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sao Paulo 30% (last 10 home games) | Palmeiras 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, matchday 4 | Venue: MorumBIS • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 April 2024 at 01:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sao Paulo 35% | Draw 30% | Palmeiras 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Sao Paulo 1.12 / Palmeiras 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Sao Paulo attack 0.966 / def 1.016 | Palmeiras attack 1.019 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Sao Paulo and Palmeiras level at 35% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Sao Paulo xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Palmeiras xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras FAQs
What time does Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras kick off?
Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras kicked off at 01:00 UK time on Tuesday 30 April 2024 at MorumBIS.
What was the final score in Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Sao Paulo 0 - 0 Palmeiras.
Where is Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at MorumBIS.
What competition is Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras part of?
Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras is a Serie A fixture (matchday 4) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Sao Paulo a 35% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sao Paulo and Palmeiras will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sao Paulo's attack at 0.97x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Sao Paulo's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sao Paulo's last 41 games and Palmeiras's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
35%
2.88
30%
3.29
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Sao Paulo xG
Total xG
2.25
1.12
Palmeiras xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
11%
8.87
11%
8.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 11.9 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sao Paulo and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 1.12 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sao Paulo come into this having played 76 games, going 27W 26D 23L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Palmeiras sit at 1.99 PPG from 76 outings (43W 22D 11L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Sao Paulo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sao Paulo's home form reads 21W 9D 8L across their last 38 home games, a 1.89 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Sao Paulo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Palmeiras have taken 1.68 points per game from their last 38 away games (16W 16D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sao Paulo are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.71 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sao Paulo
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
Sao Paulo (Home) vs Palmeiras (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sao Paulo
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras Form FAQs
What form are Sao Paulo and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Sao Paulo have gone 27W 26D 23L in their last 76 games (1.41 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 43W 22D 11L in their last 76 (1.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sao Paulo at home or Palmeiras away?
Sao Paulo's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sao Paulo at home: 1.89 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Sao Paulo or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from June 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Oct 2023, when Palmeiras won Palmeiras 5-0 Sao Paulo.
Sao Paulo's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Sao Paulo
2
Draws
8
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Palmeiras?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sao Paulo have won 0, Palmeiras have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sao Paulo and Palmeiras last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Palmeiras 2-0 Sao Paulo.
Who has won more matches between Sao Paulo and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sao Paulo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 69% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sao Paulo 45%, Palmeiras 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Sao Paulo) and 45% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Sao Paulo keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Palmeiras in 40%; Sao Paulo have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sao Paulo home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sao Paulo and Palmeiras matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Sao Paulo's recent matches and 50% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sao Paulo and Palmeiras matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Sao Paulo's recent games and 45% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sao Paulo and Palmeiras matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Sao Paulo's recent matches and 68% of Palmeiras's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sao Paulo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MorumBIS, Regular Season - 4, as Sao Paulo and Palmeiras drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 1.12 xG and Palmeiras 1.12 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sao Paulo fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Palmeiras landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 0.97 / defence 1.02 against Palmeiras attack 1.02 / defence 0.87, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 35% | Draw 30% | Palmeiras 35%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sao Paulo 46%, Palmeiras 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sao Paulo's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.99 PPG against 1.41. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.