Sao Paulo 3-1 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sao Paulo at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sao Paulo vs Juventude fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sao Paulo and Juventude meet at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Monday 6 December 2021 at 22:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sao Paulo's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Sao Paulo's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Juventude (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Juventude's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Sao Paulo 0W, Juventude 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sao Paulo — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Juventude — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sao Paulo 39% versus Juventude 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sao Paulo 25% | Juventude 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sao Paulo 0.99 xG and Juventude 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sao Paulo attack 0.742 / defence 1.043 | Juventude attack 0.835 / defence 1.340. League average goals — home 0.998 / away 0.914. Sao Paulo's attack strength of 0.742 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Juventude bring a strong defensive rating of 1.340 — this is suppressing Sao Paulo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Sao Paulo games / 36 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sao Paulo 39% | Draw 33% | Juventude 28%. Fair-value odds: Sao Paulo 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Juventude 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Juventude's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sao Paulo at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sao Paulo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.79 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sao Paulo 30% | Juventude 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sao Paulo vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo • Kick-off: Monday 6 Dec 2021, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sao Paulo 39% | Draw 33% | Juventude 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Sao Paulo 0.99 / Juventude 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Sao Paulo attack 0.742 / def 1.043 | Juventude attack 0.835 / def 1.340 | league avg home 0.998 / away 0.914 • Poisson stance: Sao Paulo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Sao Paulo xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Juventude xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sao Paulo vs Juventude kick off?
Sao Paulo vs Juventude kicked off at 22:00 on Monday 6 December 2021 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What was the final score in Sao Paulo vs Juventude?
Sao Paulo 3 - 1 Juventude.
Where is Sao Paulo vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What competition is Sao Paulo vs Juventude part of?
Sao Paulo vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sao Paulo vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Sao Paulo a 39% chance of winning, Juventude a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sao Paulo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Sao Paulo and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Sao Paulo vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Juventude?
Record (1 meetings): Sao Paulo 0W | Draws 1 | Juventude 0W.
What form are Sao Paulo and Juventude in?
Sao Paulo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Juventude (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sao Paulo's attack rating (0.74) and Juventude's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juventude's attack (0.83x) against Sao Paulo's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sao Paulo Win
39%
2.58
33%
3.01
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Sao Paulo xG
Total xG
1.79
0.80
Juventude xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.88
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
10%
9.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 13.3 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sao Paulo vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Sao Paulo and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 0.80 for Juventude, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Sao Paulo vs Juventude?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, Sao Paulo have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 10W 15D 11L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Juventude's form line: 10W 13D 13L from 36 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Sao Paulo against 1.19 for Juventude. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sao Paulo have posted 1.50 PPG from 18 outings (6W 9D 3L).
On the road, Juventude have gone 2W 7D 9L from 18 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juventude's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sao Paulo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sao Paulo are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 0.94 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sao Paulo
Current Season
Juventude
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sao Paulo and Juventude in coming into this match?
Sao Paulo have gone 10W 15D 11L in their last 36 games (1.25 PPG), while Juventude have gone 10W 13D 13L in their last 36 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sao Paulo at home or Juventude away?
Sao Paulo's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sao Paulo at home: 1.50 PPG; Juventude away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Sao Paulo or Juventude been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Juventude in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sao Paulo have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sao Paulo have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Juventude — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Sao Paulo
3
Draws
1
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Juventude?
From 8 meetings on record, Sao Paulo have won 4, Juventude have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sao Paulo and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Sao Paulo 2-1 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Sao Paulo and Juventude?
Sao Paulo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sao Paulo see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Juventude see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sao Paulo 39%, Juventude 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 28% for Sao Paulo and 33% for Juventude.
On the defensive side: Sao Paulo keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sao Paulo have failed to score in 39% of games; Juventude in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sao Paulo home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sao Paulo play Juventude?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Sao Paulo's recent matches and 61% of Juventude's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sao Paulo vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Sao Paulo's recent games and 33% of Juventude's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Sao Paulo cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Juventude.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sao Paulo beat Juventude 3-1 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 0.99 xG and Juventude 0.80 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sao Paulo beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 0.74 / defence 1.04 against Juventude attack 0.83 / defence 1.34, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 39% | Draw 33% | Juventude 28%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sao Paulo 25%, Juventude 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sao Paulo's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Juventude's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sao Paulo 1.25 PPG, Juventude 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sao Paulo win broke the near-deadlock. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm. Juventude (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.