Santos 1-0 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Palmeiras (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Santos face Palmeiras.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 13 as Santos welcome Palmeiras to Estadio Urbano Caldeira. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 November 2025 at 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Santos have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Santos's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Urbano Caldeira this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Santos are significantly better at Estadio Urbano Caldeira than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palmeiras stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Palmeiras away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Palmeiras's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Santos's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Palmeiras have the better historical record — 5 wins from 7 previous contests against 1 for Santos.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Palmeiras winning.
It is worth noting that Palmeiras have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Santos trading profile (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Palmeiras trading profile (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santos 50% versus Palmeiras 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santos 50% | Palmeiras 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 0.98 xG and Palmeiras 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 0.746 / defence 1.157 | Palmeiras attack 1.326 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.011. Santos's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.326 — the away xG of 1.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 32 Santos games / 70 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santos 24% | Draw 26% | Palmeiras 51%. Fair-value odds: Santos 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Palmeiras 1.96. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Santos 50% | Palmeiras 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio Urbano Caldeira • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Nov 2025, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 24% | Draw 26% | Palmeiras 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Santos 0.98 / Palmeiras 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 0.746 / def 1.157 | Palmeiras attack 1.326 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.011 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Santos xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Palmeiras xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santos vs Palmeiras kick off?
Santos vs Palmeiras kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 16 November 2025 at Estadio Urbano Caldeira.
What was the final score in Santos vs Palmeiras?
Santos 1 - 0 Palmeiras.
Where is Santos vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Urbano Caldeira.
What competition is Santos vs Palmeiras part of?
Santos vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 24% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Santos and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Santos vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Palmeiras?
Record (7 meetings): Santos 1W | Draws 1 | Palmeiras 5W.
What form are Santos and Palmeiras in?
Santos (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Santos's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Palmeiras's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Santos's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
24%
4.19
26%
3.92
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Santos xG
Total xG
2.53
1.55
Palmeiras xG
4.19
24%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
5%
19.75
19%
5.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 12.4 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Santos and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Santos and 1.55 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Santos's recent record stands at 8W 9D 15L from 32 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-L in the last five.
Palmeiras, meanwhile, have gone 21W 5D 6L across 32 games — 2.12 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palmeiras by 1.09 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Santos heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Santos have managed 5W 5D 5L from 15 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Palmeiras's away record stands at 9W 2D 4L across 15 trips, a 1.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Santos are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.81 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santos and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Santos have gone 8W 9D 15L in their last 32 games (1.03 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 21W 5D 6L in their last 32 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santos at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santos at home: 1.33 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Santos or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santos have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Santos and Palmeiras runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Santos's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Santos
2
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Palmeiras?
From 9 meetings on record, Santos have won 2, Palmeiras have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Santos and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Palmeiras 1-1 Santos.
Who has won more matches between Santos and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Santos see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santos 47%, Palmeiras 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Santos) and 60% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Santos keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Santos have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santos play Palmeiras?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Santos's games and 67% of Palmeiras's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Santos vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Santos's recent games and 60% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santos and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Santos have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Santos defy the odds to beat Palmeiras 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santos beat Palmeiras 1-0 at Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 0.98 xG and Palmeiras 1.55 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Palmeiras landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 0.75 / defence 1.16 against Palmeiras attack 1.33 / defence 0.94, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santos 24% | Draw 26% | Palmeiras 51%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Santos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 50%, Palmeiras 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santos's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Palmeiras's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Santos winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Santos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.