Remo vs Chapecoense-sc – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Remo at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Remo vs Chapecoense-sc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Estadio Evandro Almeida plays host to Remo versus Chapecoense-sc in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Wednesday 18 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC.

Current Form

Remo's overall Serie A record this term: 0W 5D 5L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters this season, Remo have posted 2W 4D 4L at Estadio Evandro Almeida — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Remo are significantly better at Estadio Evandro Almeida than their overall form suggests.

Chapecoense-sc (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Chapecoense-sc's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.50 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Remo have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Chapecoense-sc in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Remo 1W, Chapecoense-sc 0W, 0D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 3–2 with Remo winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Remo half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Chapecoense-sc half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Remo 63% and Chapecoense-sc 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Remo 50% | Chapecoense-sc 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Remo 1.52 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Remo attack 0.817 / defence 1.152 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.704 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.165. Chapecoense-sc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Remo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Remo games / 30 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Remo 49% | Draw 30% | Chapecoense-sc 22%. Fair-value odds: Remo 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Chapecoense-sc 4.55. Remo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Remo as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Remo if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Remo 70% | Chapecoense-sc 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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