RB Bragantino 2-2 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 40%, yet in-form Gremio provide a compelling counter-argument — this RB Bragantino vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
RB Bragantino and Gremio meet at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid in Serie A (matchday 26). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 September 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Current Form
RB Bragantino's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
RB Bragantino's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — RB Bragantino are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Gremio have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Gremio's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Gremio arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for RB Bragantino, 1 for Gremio and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Jun 2024, ended RB Bragantino 2–0 Gremio — a RB Bragantino win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
RB Bragantino half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Gremio half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 51% versus Gremio 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 43% | Gremio 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.29 xG and Gremio 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.018 / defence 1.032 | Gremio attack 1.047 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.042. Data: built from RB Bragantino's last 62 games and Gremio's last 61.
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 40% | Draw 28% | Gremio 32%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 2.49 | Draw 3.58 | Gremio 3.13. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Bragantino are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gremio (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: RB Bragantino 70% (last 10 home games) | Gremio 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, matchday 26 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Sunday 15 September 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 40% | Draw 28% | Gremio 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG RB Bragantino 1.29 / Gremio 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.018 / def 1.032 | Gremio attack 1.047 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.042 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Gremio xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ RB Bragantino vs Gremio FAQs
What time does RB Bragantino vs Gremio kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Gremio kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Gremio?
RB Bragantino 2 - 2 Gremio.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Gremio part of?
RB Bragantino vs Gremio is a Serie A fixture (matchday 26) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 40% chance of winning, Gremio a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both RB Bragantino and Gremio will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will RB Bragantino vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
RB Bragantino's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Gremio's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Gremio's attack (1.05x) against RB Bragantino's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from RB Bragantino's last 62 games and Gremio's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
40%
2.49
28%
3.58
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.42
1.13
Gremio xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
9%
11.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.0 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ RB Bragantino vs Gremio Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 1.13 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, RB Bragantino have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 24W 17D 20L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Gremio's form line: 29W 8D 24L from 61 games, 1.56 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for RB Bragantino against 1.56 for Gremio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, RB Bragantino have posted 1.97 PPG from their last 29 home games (17W 6D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — RB Bragantino are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Gremio have gone 10W 5D 14L from their last 29 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.41 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Blended
Gremio
Blended
RB Bragantino (Home) vs Gremio (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
RB Bragantino
Blended
Gremio
Blended
❓ RB Bragantino vs Gremio Form FAQs
What form are RB Bragantino and Gremio in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 24W 17D 20L in their last 61 games (1.46 PPG), while Gremio have gone 29W 8D 24L in their last 61 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Gremio away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.97 PPG; Gremio away: 1.21 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Gremio been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Gremio in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between RB Bragantino and Gremio, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gremio won Gremio 3-0 RB Bragantino on 16 Nov 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Bragantino have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Gremio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
RB Bragantino
4
Draws
1
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ RB Bragantino vs Gremio H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Gremio?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, RB Bragantino have won 5, Gremio have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Gremio last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: RB Bragantino 1-0 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Gremio?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 48%, Gremio 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (RB Bragantino) and 66% (Gremio). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Gremio in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ RB Bragantino vs Gremio Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in RB Bragantino and Gremio matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of RB Bragantino's games and 62% of Gremio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are RB Bragantino and Gremio matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of RB Bragantino's matches and 66% of Gremio's.
Do RB Bragantino and Gremio matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 83% of Gremio's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RB Bragantino and Gremio share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino and Gremio finished level at 2-2 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.29 xG and Gremio 1.13 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Gremio outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.02 / defence 1.03 against Gremio attack 1.05 / defence 0.97, drawn from 62/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 40% | Draw 28% | Gremio 32%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 43%, Gremio 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Gremio's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.46 PPG, Gremio 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.