RB Bragantino 0-1 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Bragantino vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fluminense make the trip to Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid to face RB Bragantino in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 July 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
RB Bragantino (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Bragantino's home record at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — RB Bragantino are significantly better at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid than their overall form suggests.
Fluminense have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fluminense's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward RB Bragantino. A 0.50 PPG lead over Fluminense (1.30 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Fluminense, who have claimed 4 wins from 6 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Fluminense have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
RB Bragantino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Fluminense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 49% versus Fluminense 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 42% | Fluminense 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.36 xG and Fluminense 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.090 / defence 0.927 | Fluminense attack 0.694 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.051. Data: 55 RB Bragantino games / 56 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 53% | Draw 29% | Fluminense 18%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Fluminense 5.56. RB Bragantino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Fluminense lead the H2H ledger, but RB Bragantino carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, RB Bragantino are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates are neutral: RB Bragantino 70% | Fluminense 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jul 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 53% | Draw 29% | Fluminense 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 37% | xG RB Bragantino 1.36 / Fluminense 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.090 / def 0.927 | Fluminense attack 0.694 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Fluminense xG
37%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Fluminense kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Fluminense kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Fluminense?
RB Bragantino 0 - 1 Fluminense.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Fluminense part of?
RB Bragantino vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 53% chance of winning, Fluminense a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both RB Bragantino and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Fluminense?
Record (6 meetings): RB Bragantino 1W | Draws 1 | Fluminense 4W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Fluminense in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Fluminense (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates RB Bragantino's attack at 1.09x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (0.69x) against RB Bragantino's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 55/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
53%
1.89
29%
3.44
18%
5.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.04
0.68
Fluminense xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
5.54
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
27%
3.71
5%
21.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 12.0 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.68 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
RB Bragantino's recent record stands at 24W 15D 16L from 55 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fluminense, meanwhile, have gone 18W 13D 24L across 55 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for RB Bragantino against 1.22 for Fluminense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, RB Bragantino have managed 17W 6D 4L from 27 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — RB Bragantino are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fluminense's away record stands at 3W 5D 19L across 27 trips, a 0.52 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.13 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Blended
Fluminense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Fluminense in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 24W 15D 16L in their last 55 games (1.58 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 18W 13D 24L in their last 55 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Fluminense away?
RB Bragantino's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 2.11 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.52 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Fluminense in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Bragantino have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fluminense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
RB Bragantino
2
Draws
6
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Fluminense?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 2, Fluminense have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Fluminense 1-1 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 48%, Fluminense 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (RB Bragantino) and 37% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Fluminense in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 33% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Bragantino vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 37% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Fluminense tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fluminense defy the odds to beat RB Bragantino 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat RB Bragantino 0-1 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.36 xG and Fluminense 0.68 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. RB Bragantino fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.09 / defence 0.93 against Fluminense attack 0.69 / defence 0.94, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 53% | Draw 29% | Fluminense 18%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Fluminense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 42%, Fluminense 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Fluminense's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.58 PPG, Fluminense 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward. Fluminense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.