Palmeiras 2-0 Cruzeiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Palmeiras face Cruzeiro.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Allianz Parque plays host to Palmeiras versus Cruzeiro in Serie A (matchday 18). Kick-off: Sunday 21 July 2024 at 02:00 UK time.
Form
Palmeiras (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Palmeiras have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cruzeiro's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Cruzeiro away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.20 for Palmeiras, 1.90 for Cruzeiro — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Palmeiras's last 10 home games and Cruzeiro's last 10 away games) — Palmeiras have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Cruzeiro in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Palmeiras, 0 for Cruzeiro and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 7 Dec 2023, ended Palmeiras 1–1 Cruzeiro — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Palmeiras — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Cruzeiro — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 39% versus Cruzeiro 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Palmeiras 44% | Cruzeiro 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.62 xG and Cruzeiro 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.182 / defence 0.780 | Cruzeiro attack 0.776 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.058. Cruzeiro's attack rating of 0.776 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.64. Palmeiras have a tight defence (rating 0.780), which is pulling Cruzeiro's projected output down. Data: built from Palmeiras's last 55 games and Cruzeiro's last 54.
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 60% | Draw 26% | Cruzeiro 13%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.66 | Draw 3.78 | Cruzeiro 7.44. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (60%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Palmeiras as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Palmeiras's last 10 home games and Cruzeiro's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Palmeiras 30% (last 10 home games) | Cruzeiro 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro | Competition: Serie A, matchday 18 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 21 July 2024 at 02:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 60% | Draw 26% | Cruzeiro 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Palmeiras 1.62 / Cruzeiro 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.182 / def 0.780 | Cruzeiro attack 0.776 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Cruzeiro xG
39%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro FAQs
What time does Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro kick off?
Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro kicked off at 02:00 UK time on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro?
Palmeiras 2 - 0 Cruzeiro.
Where is Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro part of?
Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro is a Serie A fixture (matchday 18) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 60% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 13% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Palmeiras and Cruzeiro will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Palmeiras's attack at 1.18x the league average against Cruzeiro's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cruzeiro's attack (0.78x) against Palmeiras's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from Palmeiras's last 55 games and Cruzeiro's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.7%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
60%
1.66
26%
3.78
13%
7.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.26
0.64
Cruzeiro xG
1.66
60%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
7.44
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
32%
3.16
3%
37.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 6.7 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 10.8 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.7 | 8.8 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Cruzeiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.64 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Palmeiras come into this having played 54 games, going 29W 13D 12L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Cruzeiro sit at 1.41 PPG from 54 outings (20W 16D 18L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Cruzeiro — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Palmeiras's home form reads 19W 3D 5L across their last 27 home games, a 2.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Cruzeiro have taken 1.30 points per game from their last 27 away games (9W 8D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Palmeiras are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Cruzeiro are on 1.07 scored and 0.93 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Cruzeiro in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Blended
Cruzeiro
Blended
Palmeiras (Home) vs Cruzeiro (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Palmeiras
Blended
Cruzeiro
Blended
❓ Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro Form FAQs
What form are Palmeiras and Cruzeiro in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 29W 13D 12L in their last 54 games (1.85 PPG), while Cruzeiro have gone 20W 16D 18L in their last 54 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Cruzeiro away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.22 PPG; Cruzeiro away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Cruzeiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Cruzeiro in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Palmeiras and Cruzeiro, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 17 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palmeiras have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cruzeiro — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Palmeiras
3
Draws
1
Cruzeiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Cruzeiro?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Palmeiras have won 3, Cruzeiro have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Cruzeiro last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2026: Palmeiras 1-1 Cruzeiro.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Cruzeiro?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Cruzeiro see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 37% (Palmeiras) and 22% (Cruzeiro) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Palmeiras) and 33% (Cruzeiro).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Cruzeiro in 48%; Cruzeiro in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Cruzeiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Palmeiras and Cruzeiro matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 22% of Cruzeiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Palmeiras and Cruzeiro matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Palmeiras's recent games and 33% of Cruzeiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Cruzeiro matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 52% of Cruzeiro's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cruzeiro.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Cruzeiro 2-0 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.62 xG and Cruzeiro 0.64 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.18 / defence 0.78 against Cruzeiro attack 0.78 / defence 1.00, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 60% | Draw 26% | Cruzeiro 13%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 44%, Cruzeiro 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cruzeiro's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.41. Form held, and they took the win. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.