Juventude 2-1 Flamengo – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Flamengo at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juventude vs Flamengo encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Flamengo travel to Estádio Alfredo Jaconi to take on Juventude in Serie A (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Thursday 27 June 2024 at 01:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Juventude have gone 0W 3D 7L — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Juventude's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Juventude are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Flamengo — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling, Flamengo have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Form points away from home here. Flamengo's 1.60 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Juventude's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Juventude have won 1, Flamengo 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2022, ended Juventude 2–2 Flamengo — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Juventude trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 83%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Flamengo trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 55% versus Flamengo 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventude 50% | Flamengo 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Juventude surrender their half-time lead 83% of the time, while Flamengo have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 0.91 xG and Flamengo 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.951 / defence 0.878 | Flamengo attack 1.306 / defence 0.726. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.092. Flamengo bring a tight defence (rating 0.726, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Juventude's projected output down. Flamengo have an above-average attack rating of 1.306, which lifts their away xG to 1.25. Data: built from Juventude's last 10 games and Flamengo's last 49.

Result probabilities: Juventude 26% | Draw 31% | Flamengo 43%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 3.90 | Draw 3.19 | Flamengo 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Juventude 70% (last 10 home games) | Flamengo 40% (last 10 away games).

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