Juventude 1-0 Ceara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ceara at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juventude vs Ceara encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Ceara travel to Estádio Alfredo Jaconi to take on Juventude. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 July 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Juventude — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Juventude have posted 2W 3D 5L at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Ceara have recorded 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ceara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ceara's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ceara — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Juventude, 1 for Ceara and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Juventude in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Ceara in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 37% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 54% versus Ceara 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juventude 41% | Ceara 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 0.82 xG and Ceara 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.772 / defence 1.232 | Ceara attack 1.032 / defence 0.798. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 0.962. Juventude's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ceara's defence strength of 0.798 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 56 Juventude games / 56 Ceara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 25% | Draw 30% | Ceara 46%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 4.00 | Draw 3.33 | Ceara 2.17. Ceara hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ceara as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ceara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juventude 50% | Ceara 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Ceara | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jul 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 25% | Draw 30% | Ceara 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Juventude 0.82 / Ceara 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.772 / def 1.232 | Ceara attack 1.032 / def 0.798 | league avg home 1.329 / away 0.962 • Poisson stance: Ceara (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Ceara xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Ceara kick off?
Juventude vs Ceara kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 24 July 2022 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Ceara?
Juventude 1 - 0 Ceara.
Where is Juventude vs Ceara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Ceara part of?
Juventude vs Ceara is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Ceara?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 25% chance of winning, Ceara a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ceara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Ceara?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Juventude and Ceara will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Ceara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Ceara?
Record (2 meetings): Juventude 0W | Draws 1 | Ceara 1W.
What form are Juventude and Ceara in?
Juventude (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Ceara (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Juventude's attack rating (0.77) and Ceara's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ceara's attack versus Juventude's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ceara Win
25%
4.05
30%
3.36
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.04
1.22
Ceara xG
4.05
25%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
7%
13.75
20%
4.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 15.9 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Ceara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Juventude and Ceara expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Juventude and 1.22 for Ceara, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Ceara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Juventude have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 13W 20D 23L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ceara's form line: 16W 26D 14L from 56 games, 1.32 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-W. The sample for Ceara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juventude on 1.05 PPG, Ceara on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Juventude have posted 1.39 PPG from 28 outings (10W 9D 9L).
On the road, Ceara have gone 4W 14D 10L from 28 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventude come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Juventude are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Ceara are on 1.05 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Ceara in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Blended
Ceara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Ceara in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 13W 20D 23L in their last 56 games (1.05 PPG), while Ceara have gone 16W 26D 14L in their last 56 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Ceara away?
Juventude's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 1.39 PPG; Ceara away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Juventude or Ceara been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventude have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Ceara in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Juventude and Ceara runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 30 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Juventude have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Ceara won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Juventude's record when hosting Ceara specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Juventude
1
Draws
2
Ceara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Ceara?
From 6 meetings on record, Juventude have won 3, Ceara have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Ceara last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2025, when Ceara 0-1 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Ceara?
Juventude have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juventude see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Ceara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 43%, Ceara 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Juventude) and 36% (Ceara).
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Ceara in 36%; Ceara in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Ceara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Ceara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Juventude's recent matches and 50% of Ceara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventude vs Ceara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Juventude's recent games and 36% of Ceara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and Ceara tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Ceara in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Juventude defy the odds to beat Ceara 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude beat Ceara 1-0 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 0.82 xG and Ceara 1.22 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ceara landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.77 / defence 1.23 against Ceara attack 1.03 / defence 0.80, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 25% | Draw 30% | Ceara 46%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Juventude win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 41%, Ceara 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Ceara's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventude 1.05 PPG, Ceara 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juventude win broke the near-deadlock. Juventude (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Ceara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.