Juventude 1-1 Atletico Goianiense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Goianiense at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventude vs Atletico Goianiense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Juventude and Atletico Goianiense meet at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 July 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Juventude's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Juventude have gone 3W 0D 2L this season (5 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Juventude are significantly better at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi than their overall form suggests.
Atletico Goianiense have collected 1.56 PPG across 9 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 3L. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.89 per game is modest, conceding 0.89 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 9 games (56%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Goianiense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico Goianiense's away record: 2W 0D 2L from 4 road trips in Serie A this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.56 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Juventude half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 56% of games.
Atletico Goianiense half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Juventude 11% | Atletico Goianiense 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juventude 22% | Atletico Goianiense 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.05 xG and Atletico Goianiense 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.836 / defence 1.176 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.856 / defence 1.376. League average goals — home 0.912 / away 1.046. Atletico Goianiense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.376 — this is suppressing Juventude's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Juventude games / 9 Atletico Goianiense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 35% | Draw 30% | Atletico Goianiense 35%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Atletico Goianiense 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Juventude 0% | Atletico Goianiense 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Atletico Goianiense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jul 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 35% | Draw 30% | Atletico Goianiense 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Juventude 1.05 / Atletico Goianiense 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.836 / def 1.176 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.856 / def 1.376 | league avg home 0.912 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Atletico Goianiense xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Atletico Goianiense kick off?
Juventude vs Atletico Goianiense kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 11 July 2021 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Atletico Goianiense?
Juventude 1 - 1 Atletico Goianiense.
Where is Juventude vs Atletico Goianiense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Atletico Goianiense part of?
Juventude vs Atletico Goianiense is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 35% chance of winning, Atletico Goianiense a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Juventude and Atletico Goianiense will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Atletico Goianiense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Atletico Goianiense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juventude and Atletico Goianiense in?
Juventude (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 4W-2D-3L in 9 | 1.56 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 0.89 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Juventude's attack rating (0.84) and Atletico Goianiense's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atletico Goianiense's attack (0.86x) against Juventude's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 10/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Goianiense Win
35%
2.86
30%
3.34
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.10
1.05
Atletico Goianiense xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
12%
8.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Juventude and Atletico Goianiense expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Juventude and 1.05 for Atletico Goianiense, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Atletico Goianiense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Juventude's recent record stands at 3W 2D 4L from 9 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Goianiense, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 3L across 9 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Atletico Goianiense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Juventude against 1.56 for Atletico Goianiense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Juventude have managed 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Atletico Goianiense's away record stands at 2W 0D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventude come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Juventude are averaging 0.56 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Atletico Goianiense are on 0.89 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juventude have seen both teams score in 11% of their recent games.
Defensively: Juventude have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Atletico Goianiense in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Blended
Atletico Goianiense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Atletico Goianiense in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 games (1.22 PPG), while Atletico Goianiense have gone 4W 2D 3L in their last 9 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Atletico Goianiense away?
Juventude's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 2.25 PPG; Atletico Goianiense away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Juventude or Atletico Goianiense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventude have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Atletico Goianiense in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventude have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Atletico Goianiense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Juventude
3
Draws
2
Atletico Goianiense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Atletico Goianiense?
From 6 meetings on record, Juventude have won 1, Atletico Goianiense have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Atletico Goianiense last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2024, when Atletico Goianiense 2-1 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Atletico Goianiense?
Atletico Goianiense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Juventude see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Atletico Goianiense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Juventude) and 50% (Atletico Goianiense) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Juventude) and 50% (Atletico Goianiense).
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Atletico Goianiense in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Atletico Goianiense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Atletico Goianiense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Juventude's recent matches and 50% of Atletico Goianiense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventude vs Atletico Goianiense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Juventude's recent games and 50% of Atletico Goianiense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and Atletico Goianiense tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Atletico Goianiense in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventude and Atletico Goianiense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude and Atletico Goianiense finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.05 xG and Atletico Goianiense 1.05 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.84 / defence 1.18 against Atletico Goianiense attack 0.86 / defence 1.38, drawn from 10/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 35% | Draw 30% | Atletico Goianiense 35%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 22% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 22%, Atletico Goianiense 22%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 22%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 11% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventude 1.22 PPG, Atletico Goianiense 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.