Internacional 1-1 Ceara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Internacional at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Internacional vs Ceara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ceara make the trip to Estádio José Pinheiro Borda to face Internacional in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 June 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 1.08 xG and Ceara 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 0.976 / defence 1.272 | Ceara attack 0.722 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 0.836 / away 1.044. Ceara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing Internacional's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Internacional games / 4 Ceara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Internacional 38% | Draw 30% | Ceara 32%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Ceara 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Internacional as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Internacional if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs Ceara | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estádio José Pinheiro Borda • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Jun 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 38% | Draw 30% | Ceara 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Internacional 1.08 / Ceara 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 0.976 / def 1.272 | Ceara attack 0.722 / def 1.322 | league avg home 0.836 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: Internacional (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Ceara xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Internacional vs Ceara kick off?
Internacional vs Ceara kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 20 June 2021 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What was the final score in Internacional vs Ceara?
Internacional 1 - 1 Ceara.
Where is Internacional vs Ceara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What competition is Internacional vs Ceara part of?
Internacional vs Ceara is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs Ceara?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 38% chance of winning, Ceara a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Ceara?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Internacional and Ceara will score (BTTS).
Will Internacional vs Ceara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Ceara?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Internacional and Ceara in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Internacional's attack rating (0.98) and Ceara's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ceara's attack (0.72x) against Internacional's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
38%
2.64
30%
3.29
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Internacional xG
Total xG
2.04
0.96
Ceara xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
11%
9.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 12.5 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs Ceara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Internacional and Ceara expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Internacional and 0.96 for Ceara, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs Ceara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Internacional
Pre-Season
Ceara
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 21 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Internacional have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Internacional have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ceara — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Internacional
3
Draws
0
Ceara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Ceara?
From 6 meetings on record, Internacional have won 3, Ceara have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Internacional and Ceara last play each other?
They last met on 21 November 2025, when Ceara 1-2 Internacional.
Who has won more matches between Internacional and Ceara?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Internacional home games / Ceara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Internacional and Ceara share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Internacional and Ceara finished level at 1-1 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.08 xG and Ceara 0.96 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 0.98 / defence 1.27 against Ceara attack 0.72 / defence 1.32, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Internacional 38% | Draw 30% | Ceara 32%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.