Gremio 1-1 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gremio at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gremio vs Fluminense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gremio and Fluminense meet at Arena do Grêmio in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 21:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gremio have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gremio's home record at Arena do Grêmio: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Gremio are significantly better at Arena do Grêmio than their overall form suggests.
Fluminense's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Fluminense have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Gremio have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Fluminense in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 5 wins for Gremio, 3 for Fluminense and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2026, ended 1–2 with Fluminense winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Gremio — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Fluminense — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 56% versus Fluminense 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 40% | Fluminense 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.42 xG and Fluminense 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 0.996 / defence 1.051 | Fluminense attack 0.957 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.127. Data: 57 Gremio games / 57 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 43% | Draw 28% | Fluminense 29%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Fluminense 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gremio at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gremio if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Gremio 60% | Fluminense 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jul 2026, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 43% | Draw 28% | Fluminense 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Gremio 1.42 / Fluminense 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 0.996 / def 1.051 | Fluminense attack 0.957 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Gremio (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Fluminense xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Fluminense kick off?
Gremio vs Fluminense kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 26 July 2026 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Fluminense?
Gremio 1 - 1 Fluminense.
Where is Gremio vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Fluminense part of?
Gremio vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 43% chance of winning, Fluminense a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Gremio and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Fluminense?
Record (9 meetings): Gremio 5W | Draws 1 | Fluminense 3W.
What form are Gremio and Fluminense in?
Gremio (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Fluminense (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gremio's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Fluminense's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (0.96x) against Gremio's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
43%
2.35
28%
3.52
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.56
1.13
Fluminense xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
14%
7.30
7%
14.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.5 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Gremio and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Gremio and 1.13 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Gremio have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 18W 16D 23L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fluminense's form line: 28W 12D 17L from 57 games, 1.68 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-D. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fluminense are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gremio.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Gremio have posted 1.75 PPG from 28 outings (14W 7D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Gremio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fluminense have gone 6W 9D 13L from 28 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gremio are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.39 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Blended
Fluminense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 18W 16D 23L in their last 57 games (1.23 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 28W 12D 17L in their last 57 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Fluminense away?
Gremio's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 1.75 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Gremio or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gremio have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Fluminense in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gremio have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fluminense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Gremio
2
Draws
3
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Fluminense?
From 10 meetings on record, Gremio have won 5, Fluminense have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Gremio 1-1 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Fluminense?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 54%, Fluminense 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Gremio) and 36% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Fluminense in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Gremio's recent matches and 50% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Gremio's recent games and 36% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Fluminense tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gremio and Fluminense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio and Fluminense finished level at 1-1 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.42 xG and Fluminense 1.13 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 1.00 / defence 1.05 against Fluminense attack 0.96 / defence 1.00, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 43% | Draw 28% | Fluminense 29%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 40%, Fluminense 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Fluminense's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fluminense arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.