Gremio 2-1 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gremio at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gremio vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gremio and Fluminense meet at Arena do Grêmio in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 August 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gremio have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gremio's home record at Arena do Grêmio: 6W 2D 1L from 9 Serie A appearances (2.22 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fluminense's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Fluminense have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Gremio, 0 for Fluminense and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Gremio winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Gremio — key trading statistics (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Fluminense — key trading statistics (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 59% versus Fluminense 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 59% | Fluminense 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.76 xG and Fluminense 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 1.202 / defence 1.084 | Fluminense attack 0.958 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 0.991. Data: 17 Gremio games / 56 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 54% | Draw 25% | Fluminense 21%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Fluminense 4.76. Gremio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gremio at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gremio if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: Gremio 56% | Fluminense 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 54% | Draw 25% | Fluminense 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Gremio 1.76 / Fluminense 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 1.202 / def 1.084 | Fluminense attack 0.958 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.331 / away 0.991 • Poisson stance: Gremio (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Fluminense xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Fluminense kick off?
Gremio vs Fluminense kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Fluminense?
Gremio 2 - 1 Fluminense.
Where is Gremio vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Fluminense part of?
Gremio vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 54% chance of winning, Fluminense a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Gremio and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Fluminense?
Record (2 meetings): Gremio 2W | Draws 0 | Fluminense 0W.
What form are Gremio and Fluminense in?
Gremio (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Fluminense (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gremio's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Fluminense's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (0.96x) against Gremio's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 17/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
54%
1.86
25%
4.00
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.79
1.03
Fluminense xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
17%
5.83
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
4%
27.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.1 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Gremio and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Gremio and 1.03 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 17 outings, Gremio have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 9W 3D 5L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fluminense's form line: 8W 4D 5L from 17 games, 1.65 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for Gremio against 1.65 for Fluminense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Gremio have posted 2.29 PPG from 7 outings (5W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Gremio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fluminense have gone 1W 1D 5L from 7 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.65 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gremio are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.24 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Fluminense in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Blended
Fluminense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 9W 3D 5L in their last 17 games (1.76 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 8W 4D 5L in their last 17 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Fluminense away?
Gremio's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 2.29 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Gremio or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gremio have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Fluminense in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gremio have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fluminense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Gremio
2
Draws
3
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Fluminense?
From 10 meetings on record, Gremio have won 5, Fluminense have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Gremio 1-1 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Fluminense?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 57%, Fluminense 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Gremio) and 29% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Gremio have failed to score in 29% of games; Fluminense in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Gremio's recent matches and 29% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Gremio's recent games and 29% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Fluminense tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gremio edge out Fluminense 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio beat Fluminense 2-1 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.76 xG and Fluminense 1.03 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 1.20 / defence 1.08 against Fluminense attack 0.96 / defence 1.10, drawn from 17/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 54% | Draw 25% | Fluminense 21%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 59%, Fluminense 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Fluminense's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gremio 1.76 PPG, Fluminense 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gremio win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.