Goias 0-1 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Goias vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cuiaba make the trip to Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro to face Goias in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 June 2023 at 22:30 UTC.
Current Form
Goias's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Goias have posted 3W 4D 3L at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Cuiaba have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cuiaba away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Goias against 1.10 for Cuiaba. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Goias 2W, Cuiaba 0W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Goias winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Goias — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Cuiaba — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Goias 55% versus Cuiaba 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Goias 45% | Cuiaba 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Goias 1.37 xG and Cuiaba 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Goias attack 1.025 / defence 1.366 | Cuiaba attack 0.940 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.070. Data: 46 Goias games / 46 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Goias 34% | Draw 31% | Cuiaba 34%. Fair-value odds: Goias 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Cuiaba 2.94. The draw (31%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 31% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Goias 40% | Cuiaba 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Goias vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jun 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Goias 34% | Draw 31% | Cuiaba 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 59% | xG Goias 1.37 / Cuiaba 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Goias attack 1.025 / def 1.366 | Cuiaba attack 0.940 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Draw (31%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Goias xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Cuiaba xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Goias vs Cuiaba kick off?
Goias vs Cuiaba kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 4 June 2023 at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What was the final score in Goias vs Cuiaba?
Goias 0 - 1 Cuiaba.
Where is Goias vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What competition is Goias vs Cuiaba part of?
Goias vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Goias vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Goias a 34% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Goias vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Goias and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Goias vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Cuiaba?
Record (2 meetings): Goias 2W | Draws 0 | Cuiaba 0W.
What form are Goias and Cuiaba in?
Goias (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Goias's attack at 1.02x the league average against Cuiaba's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cuiaba's attack (0.94x) against Goias's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
34%
2.92
31%
3.20
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Goias xG
Total xG
2.75
1.38
Cuiaba xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
9%
11.55
9%
11.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Goias vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Goias and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Goias and 1.38 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Goias vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Goias have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 11W 13D 14L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Cuiaba's form line: 10W 11D 17L from 38 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Goias against 1.08 for Cuiaba. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Goias have posted 1.37 PPG from 19 outings (6W 8D 5L).
On the road, Cuiaba have gone 4W 3D 12L from 19 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Goias come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Goias are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.82 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Goias
Current Season
Cuiaba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Goias and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Goias have gone 11W 13D 14L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 10W 11D 17L in their last 38 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Goias at home or Cuiaba away?
Goias's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Goias at home: 1.37 PPG; Cuiaba away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Goias have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cuiaba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Goias
1
Draws
1
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Cuiaba?
From 4 meetings on record, Goias have won 2, Cuiaba have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Goias and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 21 October 2023, when Cuiaba 1-1 Goias.
Who has won more matches between Goias and Cuiaba?
Goias have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Goias see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Goias 58%, Cuiaba 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Goias) and 37% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Goias home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Goias play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Goias's recent matches and 42% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Goias vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Goias's recent games and 37% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Goias and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Goias have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cuiaba edge out Goias 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba beat Goias 0-1 at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Goias 1.37 xG and Cuiaba 1.38 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Goias fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Goias attack 1.02 / defence 1.37 against Cuiaba attack 0.94 / defence 0.96, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Goias 34% | Draw 31% | Cuiaba 34%, with Goias to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Cuiaba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Goias 45%, Cuiaba 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Goias's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cuiaba's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Goias 1.21 PPG, Cuiaba 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cuiaba win broke the near-deadlock. Goias (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Cuiaba (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.