Fortaleza EC 1-0 Sport Recife – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortaleza EC at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortaleza EC vs Sport Recife fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Sport Recife travel to Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo to take on Fortaleza EC. The game is scheduled for Monday 14 June 2021, 00:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.94 xG and Sport Recife 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 1.486 / defence 1.144 | Sport Recife attack 0.969 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.042 / away 1.070. Fortaleza EC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.486 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sport Recife bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Fortaleza EC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Fortaleza EC games / 2 Sport Recife games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 55% | Draw 22% | Sport Recife 23%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Sport Recife 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Fortaleza EC (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortaleza EC at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Sport Recife | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Monday 14 Jun 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 55% | Draw 22% | Sport Recife 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG Fortaleza EC 1.94 / Sport Recife 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 1.486 / def 1.144 | Sport Recife attack 0.969 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.042 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Sport Recife xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Sport Recife kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Sport Recife kicked off at 00:30 on Monday 14 June 2021 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Sport Recife?
Fortaleza EC 1 - 0 Sport Recife.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Sport Recife being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Sport Recife part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Sport Recife is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Sport Recife?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 55% chance of winning, Sport Recife a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Sport Recife?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Sport Recife will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Sport Recife have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Sport Recife?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Sport Recife in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fortaleza EC's attack at 1.49x the league average against Sport Recife's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sport Recife's attack versus Fortaleza EC's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
55%
1.82
22%
4.54
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
3.13
1.19
Sport Recife xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
3%
30.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Sport Recife?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Sport Recife expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 1.19 for Sport Recife, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Sport Recife?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Pre-Season
Sport Recife
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fortaleza EC and Sport Recife runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 27 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fortaleza EC's record when hosting Sport Recife specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Fortaleza EC
1
Draws
0
Sport Recife
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Sport Recife?
From 4 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 3, Sport Recife have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Sport Recife last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2025, when Fortaleza EC 1-0 Sport Recife.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Sport Recife?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Sport Recife away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Fortaleza EC edge out Sport Recife 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat Sport Recife 1-0 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.94 xG and Sport Recife 1.19 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fortaleza EC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Sport Recife landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 1.49 / defence 1.14 against Sport Recife attack 0.97 / defence 1.25, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 55% | Draw 22% | Sport Recife 23%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.