Fortaleza EC 0-0 Santos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Fortaleza EC take on Santos.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fortaleza EC and Santos meet at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 July 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fortaleza EC's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fortaleza EC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Fortaleza EC have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game.
Santos (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Santos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santos away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Fortaleza EC, 1 for Santos and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Santos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Fortaleza EC half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Santos half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 45% versus Santos 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fortaleza EC 43% | Santos 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 0.71 xG and Santos 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 0.642 / defence 0.831 | Santos attack 0.844 / defence 0.831. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 0.962. Fortaleza EC's attack strength of 0.642 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Fortaleza EC games / 56 Santos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 32% | Draw 39% | Santos 30%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 3.12 | Draw 2.56 | Santos 3.33. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 16% | BTTS probability 25% | Total xG 1.38. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 84% probability — total xG of 1.38 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 75% — Santos's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 25%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 16% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 25% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fortaleza EC 40% | Santos 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jul 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 32% | Draw 39% | Santos 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 16% | BTTS 25% | xG Fortaleza EC 0.71 / Santos 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 0.642 / def 0.831 | Santos attack 0.844 / def 0.831 | league avg home 1.325 / away 0.962 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Santos xG
25%
BTTS
40%
Over 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
5%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Santos kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Santos kicked off at 23:00 on Sunday 24 July 2022 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Santos?
Fortaleza EC 0 - 0 Santos.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Santos part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Santos is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 32% chance of winning, Santos a 30% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 25% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 16%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Santos?
Record (2 meetings): Fortaleza EC 0W | Draws 1 | Santos 1W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Santos in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Santos (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fortaleza EC's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against Santos's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.71. Flip it around — Santos's attack (0.84x) against Fortaleza EC's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 26.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.2%), 0-1 (15.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 58% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.16
39%
2.59
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
25.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
0 – 1
16.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
1.38
0.67
Santos xG
3.16
32%
Home win
2.59
39%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
40%
Over 1.5
2.50
60%
Under 1.5
1.67
16%
Over 2.5
6.25
84%
Under 2.5
1.19
5%
Over 3.5
20.00
95%
Under 3.5
1.05
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
25%
BTTS Yes
4.02
75%
BTTS No
1.33
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
15%
6.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25.1 | 16.9 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 26.7%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.67 for Santos, a combined total of 1.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Santos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Fortaleza EC have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 20W 12D 24L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fortaleza EC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Santos's form line: 18W 21D 17L from 56 games, 1.34 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Santos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Fortaleza EC against 1.34 for Santos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fortaleza EC have posted 1.56 PPG from 27 outings (11W 9D 7L).
On the road, Santos have gone 4W 12D 11L from 27 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.34 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortaleza EC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 1.02 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Santos in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Blended
Santos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and Santos in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 20W 12D 24L in their last 56 games (1.29 PPG), while Santos have gone 18W 21D 17L in their last 56 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Santos away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 1.56 PPG; Santos away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or Santos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Santos in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortaleza EC won 4-0 on 13 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortaleza EC have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Santos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fortaleza EC
3
Draws
2
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Santos?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 3, Santos have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Santos 1-1 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Santos?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Santos see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 30%, Santos 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 26% for Fortaleza EC and 37% for Santos.
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Fortaleza EC have failed to score in 37% of games; Santos in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play Santos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 44% of Santos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortaleza EC vs Santos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 37% of Santos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Fortaleza EC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC and Santos finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 0.71 xG and Santos 0.67 xG, a combined 1.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 0.64 / defence 0.83 against Santos attack 0.84 / defence 0.83, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 32% | Draw 39% | Santos 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 16%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 40% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 25% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 43%, Santos 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Santos's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.29 PPG, Santos 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Santos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.