Fortaleza EC 6-0 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortaleza EC at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo plays host to Fortaleza EC versus RB Bragantino in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off: Wednesday 9 November 2022 at 23:30 UTC.
Current Form
Fortaleza EC's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fortaleza EC's home record at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
RB Bragantino have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Fortaleza EC's favour (1.90 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Fortaleza EC 1W, RB Bragantino 2W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jul 2022, ended 1–2 with RB Bragantino winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Fortaleza EC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
RB Bragantino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 45% versus RB Bragantino 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortaleza EC 42% | RB Bragantino 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.50 xG and RB Bragantino 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 0.953 / defence 0.886 | RB Bragantino attack 1.015 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.004. RB Bragantino bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Fortaleza EC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 74 Fortaleza EC games / 74 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 51% | Draw 26% | RB Bragantino 23%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | RB Bragantino 4.35. Fortaleza EC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortaleza EC at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortaleza EC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fortaleza EC 40% | RB Bragantino 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Nov 2022, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 51% | Draw 26% | RB Bragantino 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Fortaleza EC 1.50 / RB Bragantino 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 0.953 / def 0.886 | RB Bragantino attack 1.015 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.004 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
0.90
RB Bragantino xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 23:30 on Wednesday 9 November 2022 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino?
Fortaleza EC 6 - 0 RB Bragantino.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino part of?
Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 51% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino?
Record (3 meetings): Fortaleza EC 1W | Draws 0 | RB Bragantino 2W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. RB Bragantino (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fortaleza EC's attack rating (0.95) and RB Bragantino's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — RB Bragantino's attack (1.01x) against Fortaleza EC's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
51%
1.95
26%
3.83
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
2.41
0.90
RB Bragantino xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
41%
2.47
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
5%
19.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.2 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.90 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 74 outings, Fortaleza EC have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 30W 17D 27L record — W-D-W-L-D across the most recent five.
RB Bragantino's form line: 25W 25D 24L from 74 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Fortaleza EC against 1.35 for RB Bragantino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fortaleza EC have posted 1.70 PPG from 37 outings (17W 12D 8L).
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 10W 11D 16L from 37 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortaleza EC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.41 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 30W 17D 27L in their last 74 games (1.45 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 25W 25D 24L in their last 74 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or RB Bragantino away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 1.70 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Fortaleza EC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortaleza EC won 6-0 on 9 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortaleza EC have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against RB Bragantino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Fortaleza EC
1
Draws
3
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 6, RB Bragantino have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 26 November 2025, when RB Bragantino 0-1 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 35%, RB Bragantino 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Fortaleza EC) and 57% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Fortaleza EC have failed to score in 32% of games; RB Bragantino in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play RB Bragantino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 60% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 57% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Fortaleza EC have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fortaleza EC run riot with a 6-0 hammering of RB Bragantino.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat RB Bragantino 6-0 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.50 xG and RB Bragantino 0.90 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Fortaleza EC beat their projection by 4.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. RB Bragantino landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 0.95 / defence 0.89 against RB Bragantino attack 1.01 / defence 1.21, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 51% | Draw 26% | RB Bragantino 23%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 42%, RB Bragantino 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.45 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortaleza EC win broke the near-deadlock. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.51 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.