Fortaleza EC 0-3 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fortaleza EC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo plays host to Fortaleza EC versus RB Bragantino in Serie A, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 29 July 2023 at 22:30 UTC.
Current Form
Fortaleza EC's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Fortaleza EC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortaleza EC's home record at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Fortaleza EC are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
RB Bragantino have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, RB Bragantino are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Fortaleza EC 2W, RB Bragantino 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2022, ended 6–0 with Fortaleza EC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Fortaleza EC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
RB Bragantino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 44% versus RB Bragantino 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortaleza EC 37% | RB Bragantino 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.26 xG and RB Bragantino 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 0.946 / defence 0.832 | RB Bragantino attack 1.056 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 0.979. Data: 54 Fortaleza EC games / 54 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 45% | Draw 31% | RB Bragantino 24%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | RB Bragantino 4.17. Fortaleza EC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortaleza EC at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form RB Bragantino (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortaleza EC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fortaleza EC 40% | RB Bragantino 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jul 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 45% | Draw 31% | RB Bragantino 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Fortaleza EC 1.26 / RB Bragantino 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 0.946 / def 0.832 | RB Bragantino attack 1.056 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.320 / away 0.979 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
0.86
RB Bragantino xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 29 July 2023 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino?
Fortaleza EC 0 - 3 RB Bragantino.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino part of?
Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 45% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino?
Record (4 meetings): Fortaleza EC 2W | Draws 0 | RB Bragantino 2W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. RB Bragantino (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fortaleza EC's attack rating (0.95) and RB Bragantino's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — RB Bragantino's attack (1.06x) against Fortaleza EC's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
45%
2.23
31%
3.24
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
2.12
0.86
RB Bragantino xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
7%
14.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 10.3 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.86 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Fortaleza EC have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 21W 15D 18L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fortaleza EC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Bragantino's form line: 17W 18D 19L from 54 games, 1.28 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Fortaleza EC against 1.28 for RB Bragantino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fortaleza EC have posted 1.69 PPG from 26 outings (11W 11D 4L).
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 4W 10D 12L from 26 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Bragantino's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortaleza EC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.31 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Blended
RB Bragantino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 21W 15D 18L in their last 54 games (1.44 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 17W 18D 19L in their last 54 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or RB Bragantino away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 1.69 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Fortaleza EC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortaleza EC won 6-0 on 9 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortaleza EC have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against RB Bragantino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Fortaleza EC
1
Draws
3
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 6, RB Bragantino have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 26 November 2025, when RB Bragantino 0-1 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 38%, RB Bragantino 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Fortaleza EC) and 54% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Fortaleza EC have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play RB Bragantino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 65% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 54% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Fortaleza EC have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant RB Bragantino run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Fortaleza EC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Fortaleza EC 0-3 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.26 xG and RB Bragantino 0.86 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Fortaleza EC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. RB Bragantino outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 0.95 / defence 0.83 against RB Bragantino attack 1.06 / defence 1.01, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 45% | Draw 31% | RB Bragantino 24%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a RB Bragantino win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 37%, RB Bragantino 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.44 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Bragantino win broke the near-deadlock. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.