Fortaleza EC 0-0 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Palmeiras at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortaleza EC host Palmeiras at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 July 2022 at 22:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortaleza EC stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fortaleza EC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortaleza EC's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palmeiras's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Palmeiras — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Fortaleza EC, 0 for Palmeiras and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Fortaleza EC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fortaleza EC trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Palmeiras trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 45% versus Palmeiras 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortaleza EC 43% | Palmeiras 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 0.64 xG and Palmeiras 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 0.677 / defence 0.905 | Palmeiras attack 1.277 / defence 0.717. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 0.986. Fortaleza EC's attack strength of 0.677 is below the league average — the 0.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Palmeiras's defence strength of 0.717 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.277 — the away xG of 1.14 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Fortaleza EC games / 53 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 20% | Draw 33% | Palmeiras 47%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 5.00 | Draw 3.03 | Palmeiras 2.13. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Fortaleza EC's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.78 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fortaleza EC 40% | Palmeiras 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Jul 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 20% | Draw 33% | Palmeiras 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 33% | xG Fortaleza EC 0.64 / Palmeiras 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 0.677 / def 0.905 | Palmeiras attack 1.277 / def 0.717 | league avg home 1.313 / away 0.986 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.64
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Palmeiras xG
33%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 10 July 2022 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Fortaleza EC 0 - 0 Palmeiras.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 20% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 47% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras?
Record (2 meetings): Fortaleza EC 2W | Draws 0 | Palmeiras 0W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Palmeiras (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fortaleza EC's attack rating (0.68) and Palmeiras's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 0.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Fortaleza EC's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.7%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
20%
4.99
33%
3.06
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.64
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
1.78
1.14
Palmeiras xG
4.99
20%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.07
67%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
53%
1.89
Win to Nil
6%
15.58
25%
4.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 19.3 | 11.0 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.64 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 1.14 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Fortaleza EC have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 19W 11D 23L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fortaleza EC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras's form line: 28W 11D 14L from 53 games, 1.79 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fortaleza EC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fortaleza EC have posted 1.58 PPG from 26 outings (11W 8D 7L).
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 13W 6D 7L from 26 away games — 1.73 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.60 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 19W 11D 23L in their last 53 games (1.28 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 28W 11D 14L in their last 53 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 1.58 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2022, when Palmeiras won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortaleza EC's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fortaleza EC
3
Draws
4
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 3, Palmeiras have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Palmeiras 4-1 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 31%, Palmeiras 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Fortaleza EC) and 50% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Palmeiras in 46%; Fortaleza EC have failed to score in 35% of games; Palmeiras in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 42% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 50% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Fortaleza EC have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fortaleza EC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 16, as Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 0.64 xG and Palmeiras 1.14 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Palmeiras landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 0.68 / defence 0.91 against Palmeiras attack 1.28 / defence 0.72, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 20% | Draw 33% | Palmeiras 47%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 43%, Palmeiras 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palmeiras's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.