Fortaleza EC 1-2 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortaleza EC at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fortaleza EC face Palmeiras.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortaleza EC host Palmeiras at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A (matchday 5). Kick-off is Sunday 20 April 2025 at 23:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Fortaleza EC stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Fortaleza EC's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Fortaleza EC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Palmeiras have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Palmeiras's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fortaleza EC at 1.30 PPG versus Palmeiras's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Fortaleza EC have won 3, Palmeiras 2, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.1 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2024, ended Fortaleza EC 2–2 Palmeiras — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fortaleza EC trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Palmeiras trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 50% versus Palmeiras 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortaleza EC 46% | Palmeiras 45%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Fortaleza EC surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Palmeiras have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.13 xG and Palmeiras 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 1.008 / defence 0.707 | Palmeiras attack 1.210 / defence 0.768. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 0.898. Palmeiras bring a tight defence (rating 0.768, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Fortaleza EC's projected output down. Palmeiras have an above-average attack rating of 1.210, which lifts their away xG to 0.77. Fortaleza EC have a tight defence (rating 0.707), which is pulling Palmeiras's projected output down. Data: built from Fortaleza EC's last 42 games and Palmeiras's last 42.
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 41% | Draw 37% | Palmeiras 22%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 2.44 | Draw 2.68 | Palmeiras 4.61. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortaleza EC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortaleza EC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 70% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fortaleza EC 30% (last 10 home games) | Palmeiras 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, matchday 5 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 20 April 2025 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 41% | Draw 37% | Palmeiras 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Fortaleza EC 1.13 / Palmeiras 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 1.008 / def 0.707 | Palmeiras attack 1.210 / def 0.768 | league avg home 1.461 / away 0.898 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Palmeiras xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras FAQs
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Sunday 20 April 2025 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Fortaleza EC 1 - 2 Palmeiras.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras is a Serie A fixture (matchday 5) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 41% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 22% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fortaleza EC's attack rating (1.01) and Palmeiras's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Fortaleza EC's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fortaleza EC's last 42 games and Palmeiras's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
41%
2.44
37%
2.68
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
1.90
0.77
Palmeiras xG
2.44
41%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
7%
14.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 11.5 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.77 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, Fortaleza EC have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 34W 20D 22L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Palmeiras's form line: 42W 17D 17L from 76 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortaleza EC on 1.61 PPG, Palmeiras on 1.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fortaleza EC have posted 2.11 PPG from their last 38 home games (23W 11D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — Fortaleza EC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 16W 13D 9L from their last 38 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortaleza EC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.63 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
Fortaleza EC (Home) vs Palmeiras (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras Form FAQs
What form are Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 34W 20D 22L in their last 76 games (1.61 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 42W 17D 17L in their last 76 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Palmeiras away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 2.11 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 21 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Nov 2022, when Palmeiras won Palmeiras 4-0 Fortaleza EC.
Fortaleza EC's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fortaleza EC
3
Draws
4
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Fortaleza EC have won 3, Palmeiras have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 September 2025: Palmeiras 4-1 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 28% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 54% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 45%, Palmeiras 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Fortaleza EC) and 42% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Palmeiras in 40%; Palmeiras in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 42% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 42% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 71% of Palmeiras's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Palmeiras defy the odds to beat Fortaleza EC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Fortaleza EC 1-2 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.13 xG and Palmeiras 0.77 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Palmeiras outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 1.01 / defence 0.71 against Palmeiras attack 1.21 / defence 0.77, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 41% | Draw 37% | Palmeiras 22%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Palmeiras win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 46%, Palmeiras 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.61 PPG, Palmeiras 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palmeiras win broke the near-deadlock. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.