Fortaleza EC 0-1 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortaleza EC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortaleza EC vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fortaleza EC and Fluminense meet at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 May 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fortaleza EC's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Fortaleza EC's home record at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Fortaleza EC are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
Fluminense (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Fluminense's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Fluminense arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Fortaleza EC have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Fluminense in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Fortaleza EC 1W, Fluminense 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2021, ended 2–0 with Fortaleza EC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Fortaleza EC — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Fluminense — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 40% versus Fluminense 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fortaleza EC 45% | Fluminense 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.09 xG and Fluminense 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 0.826 / defence 1.041 | Fluminense attack 1.074 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 0.911. Data: 43 Fortaleza EC games / 44 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 37% | Draw 30% | Fluminense 33%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Fluminense 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortaleza EC at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fluminense (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortaleza EC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fortaleza EC 20% | Fluminense 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 37% | Draw 30% | Fluminense 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Fortaleza EC 1.09 / Fluminense 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 0.826 / def 1.041 | Fluminense attack 1.074 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.341 / away 0.911 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Fluminense xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Fluminense kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Fluminense kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Fluminense?
Fortaleza EC 0 - 1 Fluminense.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Fluminense part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 37% chance of winning, Fluminense a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Fluminense?
Record (2 meetings): Fortaleza EC 1W | Draws 1 | Fluminense 0W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Fluminense in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Fluminense (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fortaleza EC's attack rating (0.83) and Fluminense's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (1.07x) against Fortaleza EC's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
37%
2.70
30%
3.35
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
2.11
1.02
Fluminense xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
13%
7.48
11%
9.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 12.3 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 1.02 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fortaleza EC's recent record stands at 17W 7D 14L from 38 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Fluminense, meanwhile, have gone 15W 9D 14L across 38 games — 1.42 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Fortaleza EC against 1.42 for Fluminense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fortaleza EC have managed 11W 4D 4L from 19 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Fortaleza EC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fluminense's away record stands at 4W 4D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortaleza EC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 17W 7D 14L in their last 38 games (1.53 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 15W 9D 14L in their last 38 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Fluminense away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 1.95 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Fluminense in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 16 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortaleza EC have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fluminense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fortaleza EC
2
Draws
4
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Fluminense?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 4, Fluminense have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when Fluminense 2-1 Fortaleza EC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 32% (Fortaleza EC) and 37% (Fluminense) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Fortaleza EC) and 32% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Fortaleza EC have failed to score in 26% of games; Fluminense in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 37% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortaleza EC vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 32% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Fluminense defy the odds to beat Fortaleza EC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Fortaleza EC 0-1 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.09 xG and Fluminense 1.02 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fortaleza EC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 0.83 / defence 1.04 against Fluminense attack 1.07 / defence 0.99, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 37% | Draw 30% | Fluminense 33%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Fluminense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 45%, Fluminense 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fluminense's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.53 PPG, Fluminense 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Fluminense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.