Fluminense 1-2 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 8 as Fluminense welcome Flamengo to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 May 2022 at 22:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Fluminense have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Fluminense's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Fluminense are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.
Flamengo — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Flamengo's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Fluminense) versus 1.80 (Flamengo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Fluminense, 0 for Flamengo and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 3–1 with Fluminense winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fluminense trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Flamengo trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 40% versus Flamengo 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 32% | Flamengo 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.23 xG and Flamengo 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 0.898 / defence 0.944 | Flamengo attack 1.160 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 0.920. Data: 45 Fluminense games / 45 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 41% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 30%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Flamengo 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fluminense as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fluminense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fluminense 40% | Flamengo 70%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 29 May 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 41% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Fluminense 1.23 / Flamengo 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 0.898 / def 0.944 | Flamengo attack 1.160 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.314 / away 0.920 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Flamengo xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Flamengo kick off?
Fluminense vs Flamengo kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 29 May 2022 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Flamengo?
Fluminense 1 - 2 Flamengo.
Where is Fluminense vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Flamengo part of?
Fluminense vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 41% chance of winning, Flamengo a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Fluminense and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Flamengo?
Record (1 meetings): Fluminense 1W | Draws 0 | Flamengo 0W.
What form are Fluminense and Flamengo in?
Fluminense (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Flamengo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fluminense's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Flamengo's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
41%
2.42
29%
3.50
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.24
1.01
Flamengo xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
9%
11.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 10.7 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.2 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Fluminense and 1.01 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Fluminense have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 15W 9D 14L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Flamengo's form line: 21W 8D 9L from 38 games, 1.87 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Flamengo are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fluminense.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fluminense have posted 2.00 PPG from 19 outings (11W 5D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.42 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Flamengo have gone 8W 7D 4L from 19 away games — 1.63 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Fluminense are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.82 scored and 0.95 conceded. Flamengo's attacking output running into Fluminense's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Flamengo in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 15W 9D 14L in their last 38 games (1.42 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 21W 8D 9L in their last 38 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Flamengo away?
Fluminense's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 2.00 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Flamengo in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Fluminense's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fluminense
2
Draws
4
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Flamengo?
From 10 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 4, Flamengo have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Fluminense 1-2 Flamengo.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 42%, Flamengo 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Fluminense) and 63% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Fluminense's recent matches and 63% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Fluminense's recent games and 63% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Flamengo tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Flamengo defy the odds to beat Fluminense 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Fluminense 1-2 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.23 xG and Flamengo 1.01 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Flamengo outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.90 / defence 0.94 against Flamengo attack 1.16 / defence 1.04, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 41% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 30%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Flamengo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 32%, Flamengo 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Flamengo's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.42. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fluminense (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.