Fluminense 1-2 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 11 as Fluminense welcome Flamengo to Estádio do Maracanã. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 April 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Fluminense have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Fluminense's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at Estádio do Maracanã this term (2.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Maracanã. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Flamengo — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Flamengo's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.30 PPG (Fluminense) versus 1.80 (Flamengo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Fluminense, 3 for Flamengo and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Fluminense winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Fluminense trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Flamengo trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 38% versus Flamengo 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 34% | Flamengo 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.73 xG and Flamengo 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.223 / defence 0.855 | Flamengo attack 1.216 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.020. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.216 — the away xG of 1.06 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Fluminense games / 47 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 52% | Draw 25% | Flamengo 23%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Flamengo 4.35. Fluminense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fluminense as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fluminense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Fluminense 10% | Flamengo 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio do Maracanã • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 52% | Draw 25% | Flamengo 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Fluminense 1.73 / Flamengo 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.223 / def 0.855 | Flamengo attack 1.216 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Flamengo xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Flamengo kick off?
Fluminense vs Flamengo kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Estádio do Maracanã.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Flamengo?
Fluminense 1 - 2 Flamengo.
Where is Fluminense vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Maracanã.
What competition is Fluminense vs Flamengo part of?
Fluminense vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 52% chance of winning, Flamengo a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Fluminense and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Flamengo?
Record (9 meetings): Fluminense 4W | Draws 2 | Flamengo 3W.
What form are Fluminense and Flamengo in?
Fluminense (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Flamengo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fluminense's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Flamengo's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
52%
1.91
25%
4.00
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.79
1.06
Flamengo xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
4%
24.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.3 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Fluminense and 1.06 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, Fluminense have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 31W 17D 28L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Flamengo's form line: 43W 20D 13L from 76 games, 1.96 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-D.
Put side by side, Flamengo are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fluminense.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fluminense have posted 1.97 PPG from 38 outings (22W 9D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Flamengo have gone 18W 10D 10L from 38 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Fluminense are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.83 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Flamengo in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 31W 17D 28L in their last 76 games (1.45 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 43W 20D 13L in their last 76 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Flamengo away?
Fluminense's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 1.97 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Flamengo in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Fluminense's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fluminense
2
Draws
4
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Flamengo?
From 10 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 4, Flamengo have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Fluminense 1-2 Flamengo.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 40%, Flamengo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Fluminense) and 53% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Fluminense's recent matches and 60% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Fluminense's recent games and 53% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Flamengo tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Flamengo defy the odds to beat Fluminense 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Fluminense 1-2 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.73 xG and Flamengo 1.06 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Flamengo outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.22 / defence 0.85 against Flamengo attack 1.22 / defence 0.95, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 52% | Draw 25% | Flamengo 23%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Flamengo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 34%, Flamengo 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Flamengo's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.45. That form edge translated into the three points. Fluminense (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.