Fluminense 1-0 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fluminense (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fluminense face Cuiaba.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fluminense host Cuiaba at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 August 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fluminense — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fluminense have posted 6W 1D 3L at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cuiaba have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cuiaba's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Fluminense carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Fluminense have won 2, Cuiaba 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Fluminense winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Fluminense in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cuiaba in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 43% versus Cuiaba 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fluminense 38% | Cuiaba 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.68 xG and Cuiaba 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.275 / defence 1.064 | Cuiaba attack 0.788 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 0.937. Fluminense carry an above-average attack strength of 1.275 — their λ of 1.68 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 58 Fluminense games / 58 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 59% | Draw 24% | Cuiaba 17%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Cuiaba 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Fluminense (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 50% | Cuiaba 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 59% | Draw 24% | Cuiaba 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 44% | xG Fluminense 1.68 / Cuiaba 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.275 / def 1.064 | Cuiaba attack 0.788 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.312 / away 0.937 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Cuiaba xG
44%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Cuiaba kick off?
Fluminense vs Cuiaba kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Cuiaba?
Fluminense 1 - 0 Cuiaba.
Where is Fluminense vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Cuiaba part of?
Fluminense vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 59% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Fluminense and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Cuiaba?
Record (3 meetings): Fluminense 2W | Draws 1 | Cuiaba 0W.
What form are Fluminense and Cuiaba in?
Fluminense (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Cuiaba (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fluminense's attack at 1.27x the league average against Cuiaba's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.7%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
59%
1.71
24%
4.16
17%
5.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.46
0.79
Cuiaba xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
5.76
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
3%
30.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 11.2 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.79 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Cuiaba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Fluminense have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 25W 14D 19L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cuiaba's form line: 15W 22D 21L from 58 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fluminense on 1.53 PPG, Cuiaba on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fluminense have posted 1.97 PPG from 29 outings (17W 6D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cuiaba have gone 6W 11D 12L from 29 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fluminense are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.83 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Blended
Cuiaba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 25W 14D 19L in their last 58 games (1.53 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 15W 22D 21L in their last 58 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Cuiaba away?
Fluminense's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 1.97 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fluminense and Cuiaba runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fluminense go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Sep 2023, when Cuiaba won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fluminense's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Fluminense
1
Draws
1
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Cuiaba?
From 8 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 6, Cuiaba have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2024, when Fluminense 1-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Cuiaba?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 45%, Cuiaba 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Fluminense) and 34% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Cuiaba in 34%; Cuiaba in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Fluminense's recent matches and 41% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Fluminense's recent games and 34% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Cuiaba 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Cuiaba 1-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.68 xG and Cuiaba 0.79 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.27 / defence 1.06 against Cuiaba attack 0.79 / defence 1.00, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 59% | Draw 24% | Cuiaba 17%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 38%, Cuiaba 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cuiaba's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.53 PPG, Cuiaba 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. Fluminense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.