Fluminense 1-1 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Fluminense take on Corinthians.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 7 as Fluminense welcome Corinthians to Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 June 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 0.75 xG and Corinthians 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 0.883 / defence 0.902 | Corinthians attack 0.762 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 0.963 / away 1.012. Data: 6 Fluminense games / 6 Corinthians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 33% | Draw 38% | Corinthians 30%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 3.03 | Draw 2.63 | Corinthians 3.33. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS probability 26% | Total xG 1.45. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.45 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 74% — Corinthians's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 26%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.45 combined xG gives a 18% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Jun 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 33% | Draw 38% | Corinthians 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 18% | BTTS 26% | xG Fluminense 0.75 / Corinthians 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 0.883 / def 0.902 | Corinthians attack 0.762 / def 0.883 | league avg home 0.963 / away 1.012 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Corinthians xG
26%
BTTS
42%
Over 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Corinthians kick off?
Fluminense vs Corinthians kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 27 June 2021 at Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Corinthians?
Fluminense 1 - 1 Corinthians.
Where is Fluminense vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama.
What competition is Fluminense vs Corinthians part of?
Fluminense vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 33% chance of winning, Corinthians a 30% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 26% probability that both Fluminense and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 18%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Corinthians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fluminense and Corinthians in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fluminense's attack at 0.88x the league average against Corinthians's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Corinthians's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 25.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.1%), 0-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 56% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.04
38%
2.66
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
23.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Fluminense xG
Total xG
1.45
0.69
Corinthians xG
3.04
33%
Home win
2.66
38%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
42%
Over 1.5
2.38
58%
Under 1.5
1.72
18%
Over 2.5
5.56
82%
Under 2.5
1.22
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
26%
BTTS Yes
3.78
74%
BTTS No
1.36
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
47%
2.12
Win to Nil
16%
6.09
14%
7.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.6 | 16.4 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 12.3 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 25.1%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.69 for Corinthians, a combined total of 1.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Pre-Season
Corinthians
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Jul 2022, when Fluminense won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fluminense's record when hosting Corinthians specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fluminense
2
Draws
4
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Corinthians?
From 10 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 4, Corinthians have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2026, when Fluminense 3-1 Corinthians.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Fluminense and Corinthians share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama, Regular Season - 7, as Fluminense and Corinthians drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 0.75 xG and Corinthians 0.69 xG, a combined 1.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.88 / defence 0.90 against Corinthians attack 0.76 / defence 0.88, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 33% | Draw 38% | Corinthians 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 42% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 26% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.