Fluminense 1-4 Atletico Paranaense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Paranaense at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal General Raulino de Oliveira plays host to Fluminense versus Atletico Paranaense in Serie A, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Wednesday 30 June 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 0.95 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 0.925 / defence 0.956 | Atletico Paranaense attack 1.063 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 0.946 / away 1.001. Data: 7 Fluminense games / 6 Atletico Paranaense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 32% | Draw 32% | Atletico Paranaense 36%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Atletico Paranaense 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico Paranaense are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Paranaense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estádio Municipal General Raulino de Oliveira • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 Jun 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 32% | Draw 32% | Atletico Paranaense 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Fluminense 0.95 / Atletico Paranaense 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 0.925 / def 0.956 | Atletico Paranaense attack 1.063 / def 1.084 | league avg home 0.946 / away 1.001 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Atletico Paranaense xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 30 June 2021 at Estádio Municipal General Raulino de Oliveira.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense?
Fluminense 1 - 4 Atletico Paranaense.
Where is Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal General Raulino de Oliveira.
What competition is Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 32% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Fluminense and Atletico Paranaense will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Atletico Paranaense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fluminense and Atletico Paranaense in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fluminense's attack at 0.93x the league average against Atletico Paranaense's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atletico Paranaense's attack (1.06x) against Fluminense's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 7/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
32%
3.12
32%
3.10
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Fluminense xG
Total xG
1.96
1.02
Atletico Paranaense xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
12%
8.60
14%
7.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 14.2 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Fluminense and 1.02 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Pre-Season
Atletico Paranaense
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Paranaense won 1-4 on 30 Jun 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fluminense have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atletico Paranaense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Fluminense
2
Draws
2
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Atletico Paranaense?
From 9 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 5, Atletico Paranaense have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Fluminense 3-2 Atletico Paranaense.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Atletico Paranaense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Atletico Paranaense run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Fluminense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Paranaense beat Fluminense 1-4 at Estádio Municipal General Raulino de Oliveira, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 0.95 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.02 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Atletico Paranaense outscored their 1.02 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.93 / defence 0.96 against Atletico Paranaense attack 1.06 / defence 1.08, drawn from 7/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 32% | Draw 32% | Atletico Paranaense 36%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.