Fluminense 0-2 Atletico Goianiense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Atletico Goianiense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho plays host to Fluminense versus Atletico Goianiense in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 11 June 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fluminense's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Fluminense at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Fluminense are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.
Atletico Goianiense have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Atletico Goianiense away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Fluminense, 1 for Atletico Goianiense and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Fluminense half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Atletico Goianiense half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 40% versus Atletico Goianiense 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fluminense 32% | Atletico Goianiense 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.89 xG and Atletico Goianiense 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.251 / defence 1.178 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.830 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 0.988. Fluminense carry an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — their λ of 1.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 48 Fluminense games / 48 Atletico Goianiense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 58% | Draw 23% | Atletico Goianiense 18%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Atletico Goianiense 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Fluminense (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fluminense at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Fluminense 40% | Atletico Goianiense 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Atletico Goianiense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jun 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 58% | Draw 23% | Atletico Goianiense 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Fluminense 1.89 / Atletico Goianiense 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.251 / def 1.178 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.830 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.283 / away 0.988 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Atletico Goianiense xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Atletico Goianiense kick off?
Fluminense vs Atletico Goianiense kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 11 June 2022 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Atletico Goianiense?
Fluminense 0 - 2 Atletico Goianiense.
Where is Fluminense vs Atletico Goianiense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Atletico Goianiense part of?
Fluminense vs Atletico Goianiense is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 58% chance of winning, Atletico Goianiense a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Fluminense and Atletico Goianiense will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Atletico Goianiense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Atletico Goianiense?
Record (2 meetings): Fluminense 0W | Draws 1 | Atletico Goianiense 1W.
What form are Fluminense and Atletico Goianiense in?
Fluminense (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fluminense's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Atletico Goianiense's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. Flip it around — Atletico Goianiense's attack (0.83x) against Fluminense's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
58%
1.71
23%
4.32
18%
5.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.85
0.97
Atletico Goianiense xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
5.42
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
15%
6.59
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
3%
35.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Atletico Goianiense expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.97 for Atletico Goianiense, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Atletico Goianiense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fluminense's recent record stands at 15W 9D 14L from 38 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Atletico Goianiense, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 11L across 38 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Fluminense against 1.39 for Atletico Goianiense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fluminense have managed 11W 5D 3L from 19 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.42 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Atletico Goianiense's away record stands at 7W 4D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fluminense are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Atletico Goianiense are on 0.87 scored and 0.95 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Atletico Goianiense in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Current Season
Atletico Goianiense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Atletico Goianiense in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 15W 9D 14L in their last 38 games (1.42 PPG), while Atletico Goianiense have gone 13W 14D 11L in their last 38 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Atletico Goianiense away?
Fluminense's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 2.00 PPG; Atletico Goianiense away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Atletico Goianiense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Atletico Goianiense in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Atletico Goianiense go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fluminense have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Atletico Goianiense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Fluminense
1
Draws
5
Atletico Goianiense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Atletico Goianiense?
From 6 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 0, Atletico Goianiense have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Atletico Goianiense last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2024, when Atletico Goianiense 1-0 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Atletico Goianiense?
Atletico Goianiense have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Atletico Goianiense see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 42%, Atletico Goianiense 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Fluminense) and 42% (Atletico Goianiense).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Atletico Goianiense in 42%; Atletico Goianiense in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Atletico Goianiense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Atletico Goianiense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Fluminense's recent matches and 37% of Atletico Goianiense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Atletico Goianiense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Fluminense's recent games and 42% of Atletico Goianiense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Atletico Goianiense cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fluminense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Goianiense beat Fluminense 0-2 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.89 xG and Atletico Goianiense 0.97 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fluminense fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Atletico Goianiense outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.25 / defence 1.18 against Atletico Goianiense attack 0.83 / defence 1.17, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 58% | Draw 23% | Atletico Goianiense 18%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Atletico Goianiense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 32%, Atletico Goianiense 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.42 PPG, Atletico Goianiense 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atletico Goianiense win broke the near-deadlock. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atletico Goianiense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.