Flamengo 1-2 Santos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Flamengo vs Santos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 31 as Flamengo welcome Santos to Arena BRB Mané Garrincha. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 1 November 2023 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Flamengo stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Flamengo's home record at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Santos — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Santos's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Flamengo carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
Flamengo hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 1 for Santos, with 0 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Jun 2023, ended 3–2 with Flamengo winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Flamengo and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (67 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Santos trading profile (67 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 54% versus Santos 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 52% | Santos 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.66 xG and Santos 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 0.821 / defence 0.850 | Santos attack 0.836 / defence 1.451. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.075. Santos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.451 — this is suppressing Flamengo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 Flamengo games / 68 Santos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 58% | Draw 26% | Santos 16%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Santos 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 30% | Santos 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Arena BRB Mané Garrincha • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Nov 2023, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 58% | Draw 26% | Santos 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 44% | xG Flamengo 1.66 / Santos 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 0.821 / def 0.850 | Santos attack 0.836 / def 1.451 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Santos xG
44%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Santos kick off?
Flamengo vs Santos kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 1 November 2023 at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Santos?
Flamengo 1 - 2 Santos.
Where is Flamengo vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha.
What competition is Flamengo vs Santos part of?
Flamengo vs Santos is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 58% chance of winning, Santos a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Flamengo and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Santos?
Record (5 meetings): Flamengo 4W | Draws 0 | Santos 1W.
What form are Flamengo and Santos in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Santos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 0.82x the league average against Santos's defence at 1.45x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Santos's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.7%), 2-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
58%
1.73
26%
3.88
16%
6.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.42
0.76
Santos xG
1.73
58%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
6.15
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
27%
3.70
3%
32.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 11.2 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.76 for Santos, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Santos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Flamengo's recent record stands at 32W 16D 19L from 67 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Santos, meanwhile, have gone 21W 17D 29L across 67 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Santos heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 18W 7D 7L from 32 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Santos's away record stands at 7W 7D 18L across 32 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Flamengo are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 1.16 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Santos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Santos in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 32W 16D 19L in their last 67 games (1.67 PPG), while Santos have gone 21W 17D 29L in their last 67 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Santos away?
Flamengo's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.91 PPG; Santos away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Santos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Santos in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Flamengo and Santos runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Flamengo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Aug 2021, when Flamengo won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Flamengo's record when hosting Santos specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Flamengo
0
Draws
3
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Santos?
From 9 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 6, Santos have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Flamengo 3-1 Santos.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Santos?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 41%, Santos 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Flamengo) and 44% (Santos).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Santos in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Santos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Flamengo's recent matches and 41% of Santos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Santos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Flamengo's recent games and 44% of Santos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Santos tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Santos in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Santos defy the odds to beat Flamengo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santos beat Flamengo 1-2 at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.66 xG and Santos 0.76 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Santos outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 0.82 / defence 0.85 against Santos attack 0.84 / defence 1.45, drawn from 67/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 58% | Draw 26% | Santos 16%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Santos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 52%, Santos 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (67 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Santos's trading profile (67 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Santos winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Flamengo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Santos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.