Flamengo 2-0 Mirassol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Flamengo (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Flamengo face Mirassol.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Mirassol travel to to take on Flamengo. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 2 September 2026, 22:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Flamengo — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Flamengo at this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at . At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Mirassol have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mirassol have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Flamengo have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Flamengo, 0 for Mirassol and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2026, ended 5–1 with Flamengo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Mirassol trading profile (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 47% versus Mirassol 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 55% | Mirassol 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.87 xG and Mirassol 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.232 / defence 0.775 | Mirassol attack 0.860 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.176. Flamengo's defence rating of 0.775 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 62 Flamengo games / 62 Mirassol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 61% | Draw 26% | Mirassol 13%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.64 | Draw 3.85 | Mirassol 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (61%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 5.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 30% | Mirassol 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Sep 2026, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 61% | Draw 26% | Mirassol 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 48% | xG Flamengo 1.87 / Mirassol 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.232 / def 0.775 | Mirassol attack 0.860 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Mirassol xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Mirassol kick off?
Flamengo vs Mirassol kicked off at 22:30 on Wednesday 2 September 2026.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Mirassol?
Flamengo 2 - 0 Mirassol.
What competition is Flamengo vs Mirassol part of?
Flamengo vs Mirassol is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 61% chance of winning, Mirassol a 13% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Flamengo and Mirassol will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Mirassol?
Record (3 meetings): Flamengo 2W | Draws 1 | Mirassol 0W.
What form are Flamengo and Mirassol in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Mirassol (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 1.23x the league average against Mirassol's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mirassol's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
61%
1.63
26%
3.88
13%
7.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.66
0.78
Mirassol xG
1.63
61%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
7.66
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
15%
6.51
Win to Nil
28%
3.58
2%
49.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 10.3 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.78 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Mirassol?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Flamengo's recent record stands at 37W 16D 9L from 62 games, a 2.05 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mirassol, meanwhile, have gone 24W 20D 18L across 62 games — 1.48 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mirassol heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 21W 8D 1L from 30 games — 2.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mirassol's away record stands at 7W 9D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mirassol's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Flamengo are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Mirassol are on 1.45 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol in 63%.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Blended
Mirassol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Mirassol in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 37W 16D 9L in their last 62 games (2.05 PPG), while Mirassol have gone 24W 20D 18L in their last 62 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Mirassol away?
Flamengo's home record (2.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.37 PPG; Mirassol away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Mirassol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Mirassol in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Flamengo and Mirassol runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Flamengo have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2026, when Flamengo won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Flamengo's record when hosting Mirassol specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Flamengo
1
Draws
0
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Mirassol?
From 4 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 3, Mirassol have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Mirassol last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when Flamengo 2-0 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Mirassol?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 33%, Mirassol 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Flamengo) and 37% (Mirassol).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 63% of their matches; Mirassol in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Mirassol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Flamengo's recent matches and 53% of Mirassol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Mirassol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Flamengo's recent games and 37% of Mirassol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Mirassol tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Mirassol in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Flamengo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mirassol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Mirassol 2-0 at , Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.87 xG and Mirassol 0.78 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.23 / defence 0.78 against Mirassol attack 0.86 / defence 1.08, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 61% | Draw 26% | Mirassol 13%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 55%, Mirassol 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mirassol's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.48. Form held, and they took the win. Mirassol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.