Flamengo 4-0 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Flamengo vs Juventude encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 18 as Flamengo welcome Juventude to Estádio Nacional de Brasília. Kick-off is set for Thursday 21 July 2022 at 00:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Flamengo's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Estádio Nacional de Brasília this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nacional de Brasília. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juventude stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventude away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Flamengo carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Flamengo, 1 for Juventude and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Oct 2021, ended 3–1 with Flamengo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Juventude trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 46% versus Juventude 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 51% | Juventude 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.74 xG and Juventude 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.092 / defence 0.778 | Juventude attack 1.004 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 0.942. Juventude bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Flamengo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Flamengo's defence rating of 0.778 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Flamengo games / 55 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 61% | Draw 23% | Juventude 15%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Juventude 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Flamengo 30% | Juventude 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estádio Nacional de Brasília • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Jul 2022, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 61% | Draw 23% | Juventude 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 43% | xG Flamengo 1.74 / Juventude 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.092 / def 0.778 | Juventude attack 1.004 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.280 / away 0.942 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Juventude xG
43%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Juventude kick off?
Flamengo vs Juventude kicked off at 00:30 on Thursday 21 July 2022 at Estádio Nacional de Brasília.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Juventude?
Flamengo 4 - 0 Juventude.
Where is Flamengo vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nacional de Brasília.
What competition is Flamengo vs Juventude part of?
Flamengo vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 61% chance of winning, Juventude a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Flamengo and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Juventude?
Record (2 meetings): Flamengo 1W | Draws 0 | Juventude 1W.
What form are Flamengo and Juventude in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Juventude (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Flamengo's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Juventude's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, Juventude's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.7%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
61%
1.63
23%
4.31
15%
6.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.47
0.74
Juventude xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
6.47
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
18%
5.68
Win to Nil
29%
3.40
3%
36.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 10.8 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.74 for Juventude, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Juventude?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Flamengo's recent record stands at 28W 11D 16L from 55 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juventude, meanwhile, have gone 13W 20D 22L across 55 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Juventude heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 18W 2D 7L from 27 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Juventude's away record stands at 3W 11D 13L across 27 trips, a 0.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Flamengo are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 0.93 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Blended
Juventude
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Juventude in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 28W 11D 16L in their last 55 games (1.73 PPG), while Juventude have gone 13W 20D 22L in their last 55 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Juventude away?
Flamengo's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.07 PPG; Juventude away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Juventude been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Juventude in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Flamengo and Juventude runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Flamengo have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Apr 2025, when Flamengo won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Flamengo's record when hosting Juventude specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Flamengo
1
Draws
2
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Juventude?
From 8 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 5, Juventude have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Juventude 0-2 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Juventude?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Juventude see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 30%, Juventude 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Flamengo) and 41% (Juventude).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Flamengo have failed to score in 26% of games; Juventude in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Juventude?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Flamengo's recent matches and 67% of Juventude's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Flamengo's recent games and 41% of Juventude's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Juventude tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Juventude in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Flamengo run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Juventude.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Juventude 4-0 at Estádio Nacional de Brasília, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.74 xG and Juventude 0.74 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Flamengo beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.09 / defence 0.78 against Juventude attack 1.00 / defence 1.24, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 61% | Draw 23% | Juventude 15%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 51%, Juventude 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Juventude's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm. Juventude (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.