Flamengo 1-2 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 59% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Fortaleza EC travel to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to take on Flamengo. The game is scheduled for Friday 12 July 2024, 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Flamengo stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Flamengo's home record at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Fortaleza EC have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Fortaleza EC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortaleza EC's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Flamengo are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Flamengo register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Fortaleza EC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Flamengo have won 4, Fortaleza EC 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 2–0 with Flamengo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Flamengo in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Fortaleza EC in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 56% versus Fortaleza EC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 52% | Fortaleza EC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.70 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.047 / defence 0.969 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.698 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.070. Data: 53 Flamengo games / 52 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 59% | Draw 27% | Fortaleza EC 14%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | Fortaleza EC 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Flamengo 60% | Fortaleza EC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Friday 12 Jul 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 59% | Draw 27% | Fortaleza EC 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 44% | xG Flamengo 1.70 / Fortaleza EC 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.047 / def 0.969 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.698 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Fortaleza EC xG
44%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 00:00 on Friday 12 July 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC?
Flamengo 1 - 2 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 59% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Flamengo and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Fortaleza EC?
Record (6 meetings): Flamengo 4W | Draws 0 | Fortaleza EC 2W.
What form are Flamengo and Fortaleza EC in?
Flamengo (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Fortaleza EC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 1.05x the league average against Fortaleza EC's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortaleza EC's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (12.8%), 1-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
59%
1.69
27%
3.72
14%
7.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.42
0.72
Fortaleza EC xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
7.16
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
48%
2.06
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
29%
3.49
3%
39.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 10.9 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.72 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Flamengo come into this having played 52 games, going 27W 13D 12L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fortaleza EC sit at 1.48 PPG from 52 outings (21W 14D 17L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Fortaleza EC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Flamengo on 1.81 PPG, Fortaleza EC on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Flamengo's home form reads 14W 6D 5L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Fortaleza EC have taken 1.04 points per game from 25 outings (7W 5D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fortaleza EC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Flamengo are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Fortaleza EC are on 1.13 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Blended
Fortaleza EC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Fortaleza EC in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 27W 13D 12L in their last 52 games (1.81 PPG), while Fortaleza EC have gone 21W 14D 17L in their last 52 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Fortaleza EC away?
Flamengo's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.92 PPG; Fortaleza EC away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Fortaleza EC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Fortaleza EC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Jun 2025, when Flamengo won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Flamengo's record when hosting Fortaleza EC specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Flamengo
1
Draws
4
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Fortaleza EC?
From 10 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 5, Fortaleza EC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Fortaleza EC 1-0 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Fortaleza EC?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 48%, Fortaleza EC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Flamengo) and 40% (Fortaleza EC).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Fortaleza EC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Fortaleza EC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Flamengo's recent matches and 44% of Fortaleza EC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Flamengo's recent games and 40% of Fortaleza EC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Fortaleza EC tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Fortaleza EC in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fortaleza EC defy the odds to beat Flamengo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat Flamengo 1-2 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.70 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.72 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fortaleza EC outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.05 / defence 0.97 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.70 / defence 1.16, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 59% | Draw 27% | Fortaleza EC 14%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Fortaleza EC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 52%, Fortaleza EC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Flamengo 1.81 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortaleza EC win broke the near-deadlock. Flamengo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.