Flamengo 2-0 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 61% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Flamengo vs Bahia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Bahia travel to Estádio do Maracanã to take on Flamengo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 April 2026, 22:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estádio do Maracanã, Flamengo have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Maracanã. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Flamengo are significantly better at Estádio do Maracanã than their overall form suggests.
Bahia — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Bahia away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Flamengo) versus 1.40 (Bahia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Flamengo have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 8 past contests while Bahia have managed just 1 wins.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Bahia winning.
The historical record gives Flamengo a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bahia trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 55% versus Bahia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 51% | Bahia 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.93 xG and Bahia 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.238 / defence 0.790 | Bahia attack 1.058 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.042. Flamengo's defence rating of 0.790 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Flamengo games / 48 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 61% | Draw 23% | Bahia 16%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Bahia 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 50% | Bahia 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio do Maracanã • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 61% | Draw 23% | Bahia 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 50% | xG Flamengo 1.93 / Bahia 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.238 / def 0.790 | Bahia attack 1.058 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.042 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Bahia xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Bahia kick off?
Flamengo vs Bahia kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Estádio do Maracanã.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Bahia?
Flamengo 2 - 0 Bahia.
Where is Flamengo vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Maracanã.
What competition is Flamengo vs Bahia part of?
Flamengo vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 61% chance of winning, Bahia a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Flamengo and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Bahia?
Record (8 meetings): Flamengo 7W | Draws 0 | Bahia 1W.
What form are Flamengo and Bahia in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Bahia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 1.24x the league average against Bahia's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
61%
1.63
23%
4.38
16%
6.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.79
0.87
Bahia xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
6.37
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
15%
6.86
Win to Nil
26%
3.88
2%
43.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 10.2 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.87 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Bahia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Flamengo's recent record stands at 43W 20D 13L from 76 games, a 1.96 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-D in the last five.
Bahia, meanwhile, have gone 32W 17D 27L across 76 games — 1.49 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bahia heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 25W 10D 3L from 38 games — 2.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bahia's away record stands at 7W 11D 20L across 38 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Flamengo are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.30 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Bahia in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 43W 20D 13L in their last 76 games (1.96 PPG), while Bahia have gone 32W 17D 27L in their last 76 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Bahia away?
Flamengo's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.24 PPG; Bahia away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Bahia in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jul 2021, when Flamengo won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Flamengo's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
8
Flamengo
0
Draws
1
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Bahia?
From 9 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 8, Bahia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Flamengo 2-0 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Bahia?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 50%, Bahia 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Flamengo) and 60% (Bahia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Bahia in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Bahia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Flamengo's games and 66% of Bahia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Flamengo vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Flamengo's matches and 60% of Bahia's.
Do Flamengo and Bahia tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Bahia in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Flamengo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bahia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Bahia 2-0 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.93 xG and Bahia 0.87 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bahia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.24 / defence 0.79 against Bahia attack 1.06 / defence 1.04, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 61% | Draw 23% | Bahia 16%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 51%, Bahia 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bahia's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.49. That form edge translated into the three points. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.