Cuiaba 0-0 Vitoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cuiaba vs Vitoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 2 as Cuiaba welcome Vitoria to Arena Pantanal. Kick-off is set for Thursday 6 June 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cuiaba — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Cuiaba's home record at Arena Pantanal: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.16 xG and Vitoria 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.734 / defence 1.203 | Vitoria attack 0.785 / defence 1.343. League average goals — home 1.176 / away 1.126. Cuiaba's attack strength of 0.734 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Vitoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.343 — this is suppressing Cuiaba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Cuiaba games / 6 Vitoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 37% | Draw 30% | Vitoria 33%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Vitoria 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cuiaba at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cuiaba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Vitoria | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Jun 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 37% | Draw 30% | Vitoria 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Cuiaba 1.16 / Vitoria 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.734 / def 1.203 | Vitoria attack 0.785 / def 1.343 | league avg home 1.176 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Vitoria xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Vitoria kick off?
Cuiaba vs Vitoria kicked off at 00:00 on Thursday 6 June 2024 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Vitoria?
Cuiaba 0 - 0 Vitoria.
Where is Cuiaba vs Vitoria being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Vitoria part of?
Cuiaba vs Vitoria is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Vitoria?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 37% chance of winning, Vitoria a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Vitoria?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cuiaba and Vitoria will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Vitoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Vitoria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cuiaba and Vitoria in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Cuiaba home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cuiaba's attack rating (0.73) and Vitoria's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vitoria's attack versus Cuiaba's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
37%
2.67
30%
3.35
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.22
1.06
Vitoria xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
13%
7.73
10%
9.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.5 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Vitoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Vitoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Cuiaba and 1.06 for Vitoria, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Vitoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Pre-Season
Vitoria
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cuiaba
1
Draws
1
Vitoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Vitoria?
From 2 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 0, Vitoria have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Vitoria last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2024, when Vitoria 1-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Vitoria?
Vitoria have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Vitoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Cuiaba's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 2, as Cuiaba and Vitoria drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.16 xG and Vitoria 1.06 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cuiaba fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Vitoria landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.73 / defence 1.20 against Vitoria attack 0.79 / defence 1.34, drawn from 43/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 37% | Draw 30% | Vitoria 33%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.