Cuiaba 2-1 Criciuma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Criciuma at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cuiaba vs Criciuma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Criciuma travel to Arena Pantanal to take on Cuiaba. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 August 2024, 22:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cuiaba stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena Pantanal, Cuiaba have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Criciuma have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Criciuma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Criciuma have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Criciuma are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cuiaba have won 1, Criciuma 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 7.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Jun 2024, ended 5–2 with Cuiaba winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cuiaba in-play tendencies (23 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Criciuma in-play tendencies (23 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cuiaba 44% and Criciuma 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cuiaba 48% | Criciuma 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.25 xG and Criciuma 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.820 / defence 1.220 | Criciuma attack 1.016 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.027. Data: 60 Cuiaba games / 23 Criciuma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 36% | Draw 27% | Criciuma 37%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Criciuma 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Criciuma are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Criciuma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Cuiaba 40% | Criciuma 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Criciuma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 36% | Draw 27% | Criciuma 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Cuiaba 1.25 / Criciuma 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.820 / def 1.220 | Criciuma attack 1.016 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Criciuma (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Criciuma xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Criciuma kick off?
Cuiaba vs Criciuma kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Criciuma?
Cuiaba 2 - 1 Criciuma.
Where is Cuiaba vs Criciuma being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Criciuma part of?
Cuiaba vs Criciuma is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Criciuma?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 36% chance of winning, Criciuma a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Criciuma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Criciuma?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Cuiaba and Criciuma will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Criciuma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Criciuma?
Record (1 meetings): Cuiaba 1W | Draws 0 | Criciuma 0W.
What form are Cuiaba and Criciuma in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Criciuma (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cuiaba's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Criciuma's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Criciuma's attack versus Cuiaba's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Criciuma Win
36%
2.79
27%
3.72
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.52
1.27
Criciuma xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
10%
9.96
11%
9.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.3 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Criciuma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Criciuma expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Cuiaba and 1.27 for Criciuma, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Criciuma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 23 outings, Cuiaba have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 5W 6D 12L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Criciuma's form line: 7W 7D 9L from 23 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W. The sample for Criciuma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cuiaba on 0.91 PPG, Criciuma on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cuiaba have posted 0.60 PPG from 10 outings (1W 3D 6L).
On the road, Criciuma have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Criciuma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cuiaba are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Criciuma are on 1.35 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Criciuma in 78%.
Last 23 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Blended
Criciuma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Criciuma in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 5W 6D 12L in their last 23 games (0.91 PPG), while Criciuma have gone 7W 7D 9L in their last 23 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Criciuma away?
Criciuma's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 0.60 PPG; Criciuma away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Cuiaba
0
Draws
0
Criciuma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Criciuma?
From 2 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 2, Criciuma have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Criciuma last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2024, when Cuiaba 2-1 Criciuma.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Criciuma?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Criciuma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 40%, Criciuma 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Cuiaba and 80% for Criciuma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cuiaba have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Criciuma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Criciuma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Cuiaba's games and 80% of Criciuma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cuiaba vs Criciuma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Cuiaba's matches and 80% of Criciuma's.
Do Cuiaba and Criciuma tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Criciuma in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cuiaba defy the odds to beat Criciuma 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba beat Criciuma 2-1 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.25 xG and Criciuma 1.27 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.82 / defence 1.22 against Criciuma attack 1.02 / defence 1.16, drawn from 60/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 36% | Draw 27% | Criciuma 37%, with Criciuma to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Cuiaba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 48%, Criciuma 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Criciuma's trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 0.91 PPG, Criciuma 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cuiaba win broke the near-deadlock. Cuiaba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.