Cuiaba 1-0 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Corinthians at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cuiaba vs Corinthians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Pantanal plays host to Cuiaba versus Corinthians in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Wednesday 8 June 2022 at 01:30 UTC.
Current Form
Cuiaba's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Cuiaba at Arena Pantanal this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Pantanal. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Cuiaba are significantly better at Arena Pantanal than their overall form suggests.
Corinthians have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Corinthians away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cuiaba, 2 for Corinthians and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Nov 2021, ended 2–3 with Corinthians winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Cuiaba half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Corinthians half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 42% versus Corinthians 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cuiaba 34% | Corinthians 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 0.89 xG and Corinthians 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.745 / defence 1.037 | Corinthians attack 1.103 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 0.970. Cuiaba's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Cuiaba games / 47 Corinthians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 29% | Draw 31% | Corinthians 40%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Corinthians 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Corinthians are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Corinthians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Cuiaba 30% | Corinthians 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Wednesday 8 Jun 2022, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 29% | Draw 31% | Corinthians 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Cuiaba 0.89 / Corinthians 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.745 / def 1.037 | Corinthians attack 1.103 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.231 / away 0.970 • Poisson stance: Corinthians (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Corinthians xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Corinthians kick off?
Cuiaba vs Corinthians kicked off at 01:30 on Wednesday 8 June 2022 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Corinthians?
Cuiaba 1 - 0 Corinthians.
Where is Cuiaba vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Corinthians part of?
Cuiaba vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 29% chance of winning, Corinthians a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Corinthians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Cuiaba and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Corinthians?
Record (2 meetings): Cuiaba 0W | Draws 0 | Corinthians 2W.
What form are Cuiaba and Corinthians in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Corinthians (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cuiaba's attack rating (0.74) and Corinthians's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Corinthians's attack (1.10x) against Cuiaba's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
29%
3.49
31%
3.20
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.00
1.11
Corinthians xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
9%
10.58
16%
6.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 15.0 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Cuiaba and 1.11 for Corinthians, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cuiaba's recent record stands at 10W 17D 11L from 38 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Corinthians, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 11L across 38 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Cuiaba against 1.50 for Corinthians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cuiaba have managed 7W 6D 6L from 19 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Corinthians's away record stands at 5W 7D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Cuiaba are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 1.05 scored and 0.95 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Current Season
Corinthians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Corinthians in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 10W 17D 11L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 15W 12D 11L in their last 38 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Corinthians away?
Cuiaba's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.42 PPG; Corinthians away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Corinthians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Corinthians in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cuiaba have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Corinthians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cuiaba
2
Draws
5
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Corinthians?
From 8 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 1, Corinthians have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2024, when Cuiaba 0-1 Corinthians.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Corinthians?
Corinthians have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Corinthians see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 42%, Corinthians 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for Cuiaba and 26% for Corinthians.
On the defensive side: Cuiaba keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Corinthians in 32%; Cuiaba have failed to score in 32% of games; Corinthians in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Corinthians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 37% of Corinthians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Corinthians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Cuiaba's recent games and 26% of Corinthians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Corinthians tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Corinthians in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cuiaba defy the odds to beat Corinthians 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba beat Corinthians 1-0 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 0.89 xG and Corinthians 1.11 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Corinthians landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.74 / defence 1.04 against Corinthians attack 1.10 / defence 0.97, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 29% | Draw 31% | Corinthians 40%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Cuiaba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 34%, Corinthians 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Corinthians's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.24 PPG, Corinthians 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cuiaba win broke the near-deadlock. Cuiaba (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.