Cuiaba 1-2 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Corinthians at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cuiaba vs Corinthians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Pantanal plays host to Cuiaba versus Corinthians in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Tuesday 27 July 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cuiaba's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cuiaba at Arena Pantanal this season: 1W 2D 2L from 5 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Corinthians have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Corinthians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Corinthians away from home this season: 2W 3D 1L from 6 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Cuiaba half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
Corinthians half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 54% versus Corinthians 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cuiaba 46% | Corinthians 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 0.83 xG and Corinthians 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 1.035 / defence 1.400 | Corinthians attack 0.659 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 0.909 / away 1.076. Data: 11 Cuiaba games / 12 Corinthians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 29% | Draw 32% | Corinthians 38%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Corinthians 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Corinthians are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Corinthians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.83 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates are neutral: Cuiaba 60% | Corinthians 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Jul 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 29% | Draw 32% | Corinthians 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Cuiaba 0.83 / Corinthians 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 1.035 / def 1.400 | Corinthians attack 0.659 / def 0.884 | league avg home 0.909 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Corinthians (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Corinthians xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Corinthians kick off?
Cuiaba vs Corinthians kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 27 July 2021 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Corinthians?
Cuiaba 1 - 2 Corinthians.
Where is Cuiaba vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Corinthians part of?
Cuiaba vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 29% chance of winning, Corinthians a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Corinthians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Cuiaba and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Corinthians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cuiaba and Corinthians in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Corinthians (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cuiaba's attack rating (1.03) and Corinthians's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Corinthians's attack (0.66x) against Cuiaba's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 11/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
29%
3.40
32%
3.08
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
1.83
0.99
Corinthians xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
44%
2.30
Win to Nil
11%
9.19
17%
6.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 16.0 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.99 for Corinthians, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cuiaba's recent record stands at 2W 6D 3L from 11 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Corinthians, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 3L across 11 games — 1.27 PPG, with D-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Corinthians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Cuiaba against 1.27 for Corinthians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cuiaba have managed 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Corinthians's away record stands at 1W 3D 1L across 5 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Cuiaba are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 0.82 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Corinthians in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Blended
Corinthians
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Corinthians in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 2W 6D 3L in their last 11 games (1.09 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 3W 5D 3L in their last 11 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Corinthians away?
Corinthians's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.00 PPG; Corinthians away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Corinthians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Corinthians in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cuiaba have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Corinthians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cuiaba
2
Draws
5
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Corinthians?
From 8 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 1, Corinthians have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2024, when Cuiaba 0-1 Corinthians.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Corinthians?
Corinthians have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 60%, Corinthians 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 60% for Cuiaba and 0% for Corinthians.
On the defensive side: Corinthians in 40%; Cuiaba have failed to score in 40% of games; Corinthians in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Corinthians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 40% of Corinthians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Corinthians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Cuiaba's recent games and 0% of Corinthians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Corinthians tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Corinthians in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Corinthians edge out Cuiaba 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Corinthians beat Cuiaba 1-2 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 0.83 xG and Corinthians 0.99 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Corinthians outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 1.03 / defence 1.40 against Corinthians attack 0.66 / defence 0.88, drawn from 11/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 29% | Draw 32% | Corinthians 38%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 46%, Corinthians 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Corinthians's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.09 PPG, Corinthians 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Corinthians win broke the near-deadlock. Corinthians (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.