Cuiaba 1-1 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cuiaba vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cuiaba host Bahia at Arena Pantanal in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 August 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Cuiaba have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cuiaba's home record at Arena Pantanal: 1W 2D 3L from 6 Serie A appearances (0.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bahia stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bahia's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 3L across 6 road games this term (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cuiaba at 1.10 PPG versus Bahia's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Cuiaba in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Bahia in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 54% versus Bahia 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cuiaba 46% | Bahia 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.35 xG and Bahia 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 1.050 / defence 1.467 | Bahia attack 0.987 / defence 1.464. League average goals — home 0.880 / away 1.049. Bahia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.464 — this is suppressing Cuiaba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Cuiaba games / 14 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 34% | Draw 25% | Bahia 41%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Bahia 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bahia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Cuiaba 67% | Bahia 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Aug 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 34% | Draw 25% | Bahia 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Cuiaba 1.35 / Bahia 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 1.050 / def 1.467 | Bahia attack 0.987 / def 1.464 | league avg home 0.880 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Bahia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Bahia xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Bahia kick off?
Cuiaba vs Bahia kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 8 August 2021 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Bahia?
Cuiaba 1 - 1 Bahia.
Where is Cuiaba vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Bahia part of?
Cuiaba vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 34% chance of winning, Bahia a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Cuiaba and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Bahia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cuiaba and Bahia in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Bahia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cuiaba's attack rating (1.05) and Bahia's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus Cuiaba's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
34%
2.95
25%
4.03
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.87
1.52
Bahia xG
2.95
34%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
7%
13.48
11%
9.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Cuiaba and 1.52 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cuiaba's recent record stands at 2W 7D 4L from 13 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bahia, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 7L across 13 games — 1.08 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cuiaba on 1.00 PPG, Bahia on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cuiaba have managed 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bahia's away record stands at 2W 1D 3L across 6 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cuiaba are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.15 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 13 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Blended
Bahia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Bahia in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 2W 7D 4L in their last 13 games (1.00 PPG), while Bahia have gone 4W 2D 7L in their last 13 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Bahia away?
Bahia's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 0.83 PPG; Bahia away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cuiaba and Bahia runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2023, when Cuiaba won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cuiaba's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cuiaba
3
Draws
1
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Bahia?
From 6 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 2, Bahia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2024, when Cuiaba 1-2 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Bahia?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bahia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 67%, Bahia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Cuiaba and 67% for Bahia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cuiaba have failed to score in 33% of games; Bahia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Bahia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Cuiaba's games and 50% of Bahia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cuiaba vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Cuiaba's matches and 67% of Bahia's.
Do Cuiaba and Bahia tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Bahia in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cuiaba and Bahia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba and Bahia finished level at 1-1 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.35 xG and Bahia 1.52 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 1.05 / defence 1.47 against Bahia attack 0.99 / defence 1.46, drawn from 13/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 34% | Draw 25% | Bahia 41%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 46%, Bahia 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Bahia's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.00 PPG, Bahia 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bahia (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.