Cruzeiro 0-2 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cruzeiro vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Fluminense travel to Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto to take on Cruzeiro. The game is scheduled for Thursday 11 May 2023, 01:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Fluminense — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Fluminense's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cruzeiro 1.43 xG and Fluminense 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cruzeiro attack 0.917 / defence 0.989 | Fluminense attack 1.238 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.230. Fluminense have an above-average attack strength of 1.238 — the away xG of 1.51 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 4 Cruzeiro games / 42 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cruzeiro 36% | Draw 25% | Fluminense 39%. Fair-value odds: Cruzeiro 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Fluminense 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fluminense as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fluminense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cruzeiro vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto • Kick-off: Thursday 11 May 2023, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cruzeiro 36% | Draw 25% | Fluminense 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Cruzeiro 1.43 / Fluminense 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Cruzeiro attack 0.917 / def 0.989 | Fluminense attack 1.238 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Cruzeiro xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Fluminense xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cruzeiro vs Fluminense kick off?
Cruzeiro vs Fluminense kicked off at 01:30 on Thursday 11 May 2023 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What was the final score in Cruzeiro vs Fluminense?
Cruzeiro 0 - 2 Fluminense.
Where is Cruzeiro vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What competition is Cruzeiro vs Fluminense part of?
Cruzeiro vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cruzeiro vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Cruzeiro a 36% chance of winning, Fluminense a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Cruzeiro and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Cruzeiro vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Fluminense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cruzeiro and Fluminense in?
Fluminense (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Fluminense away split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cruzeiro's attack at 0.92x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus Cruzeiro's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
36%
2.81
25%
3.92
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Cruzeiro xG
Total xG
2.94
1.51
Fluminense xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
8%
12.65
9%
10.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.4 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cruzeiro vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Cruzeiro and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 1.51 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Cruzeiro vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cruzeiro
Pre-Season
Fluminense
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cruzeiro and Fluminense runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Cruzeiro's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Cruzeiro
2
Draws
3
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Fluminense?
From 7 meetings on record, Cruzeiro have won 2, Fluminense have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cruzeiro and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Cruzeiro 1-1 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Cruzeiro and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cruzeiro home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Fluminense cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cruzeiro.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Cruzeiro 0-2 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cruzeiro 1.43 xG and Fluminense 1.51 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cruzeiro fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cruzeiro attack 0.92 / defence 0.99 against Fluminense attack 1.24 / defence 1.08, drawn from 4/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cruzeiro 36% | Draw 25% | Fluminense 39%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.