Criciuma 1-1 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Criciuma at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Criciuma vs Juventude fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Heriberto Hülse plays host to Criciuma versus Juventude in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Juventude (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Juventude haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Juventude's away record: 0W 0D 10L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Criciuma 1.36 xG and Juventude 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Criciuma attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Juventude attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.116. Data: 0 Criciuma games / 0 Juventude games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Criciuma 43% | Draw 27% | Juventude 30%. Fair-value odds: Criciuma 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Juventude 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Criciuma are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Criciuma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Criciuma vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio Heriberto Hülse • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Criciuma 43% | Draw 27% | Juventude 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Criciuma 1.36 / Juventude 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Criciuma attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Juventude attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Criciuma (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Criciuma xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Juventude xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Criciuma vs Juventude kick off?
Criciuma vs Juventude kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
What was the final score in Criciuma vs Juventude?
Criciuma 1 - 1 Juventude.
Where is Criciuma vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
What competition is Criciuma vs Juventude part of?
Criciuma vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Criciuma vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Criciuma a 43% chance of winning, Juventude a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Criciuma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Criciuma vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Criciuma and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Criciuma vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Criciuma and Juventude?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Criciuma and Juventude in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Juventude (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Criciuma's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Juventude's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Juventude's attack (0.85x) against Criciuma's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Criciuma Win
43%
2.33
27%
3.70
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Criciuma xG
Total xG
2.45
1.09
Juventude xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
8%
12.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Criciuma vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Criciuma and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Criciuma and 1.09 for Juventude, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Criciuma vs Juventude?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Criciuma
Pre-Season
Juventude
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Criciuma
1
Draws
0
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Criciuma and Juventude?
From 2 meetings on record, Criciuma have won 1, Juventude have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Criciuma and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2024, when Juventude 1-2 Criciuma.
Who has won more matches between Criciuma and Juventude?
Criciuma have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Criciuma home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Criciuma and Juventude share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Heriberto Hülse, Regular Season - 1, as Criciuma and Juventude drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Criciuma 1.36 xG and Juventude 1.09 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Criciuma attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Juventude attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Criciuma 43% | Draw 27% | Juventude 30%, with Criciuma to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.