Coritiba 0-1 Sao Paulo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sao Paulo at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coritiba vs Sao Paulo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Coritiba host Sao Paulo at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Serie A, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 25 February 2026 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sao Paulo stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Sao Paulo have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Coritiba have won 0, Sao Paulo 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with Sao Paulo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.12 xG and Sao Paulo 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.688 / defence 1.142 | Sao Paulo attack 0.899 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.150. Coritiba's attack strength of 0.688 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Coritiba games / 41 Sao Paulo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 34% | Draw 28% | Sao Paulo 37%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Sao Paulo 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sao Paulo as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sao Paulo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Sao Paulo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 Feb 2026, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 34% | Draw 28% | Sao Paulo 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Coritiba 1.12 / Sao Paulo 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.688 / def 1.142 | Sao Paulo attack 0.899 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.566 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Sao Paulo (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Sao Paulo xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Sao Paulo kick off?
Coritiba vs Sao Paulo kicked off at 22:30 on Wednesday 25 February 2026 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Sao Paulo?
Coritiba 0 - 1 Sao Paulo.
Where is Coritiba vs Sao Paulo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Sao Paulo part of?
Coritiba vs Sao Paulo is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Sao Paulo?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 34% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sao Paulo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Sao Paulo?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Coritiba and Sao Paulo will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Sao Paulo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Sao Paulo?
Record (4 meetings): Coritiba 0W | Draws 2 | Sao Paulo 2W.
What form are Coritiba and Sao Paulo in?
Sao Paulo (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Sao Paulo away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Coritiba's attack at 0.69x the league average against Sao Paulo's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sao Paulo's attack versus Coritiba's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sao Paulo Win
34%
2.90
28%
3.53
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.31
1.18
Sao Paulo xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
11%
9.45
12%
8.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.8 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Sao Paulo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Sao Paulo expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.18 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Sao Paulo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Pre-Season
Sao Paulo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Coritiba's record when hosting Sao Paulo specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Coritiba
3
Draws
3
Sao Paulo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Sao Paulo?
From 6 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 0, Sao Paulo have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Sao Paulo last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Sao Paulo 1-1 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Sao Paulo?
Sao Paulo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Sao Paulo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Sao Paulo edge out Coritiba 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sao Paulo beat Coritiba 0-1 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.12 xG and Sao Paulo 1.18 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Coritiba fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.69 / defence 1.14 against Sao Paulo attack 0.90 / defence 1.04, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 34% | Draw 28% | Sao Paulo 37%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.