Coritiba 1-0 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Coritiba at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coritiba vs Botafogo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 8 as Coritiba welcome Botafogo to Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 May 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.39 xG and Botafogo 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 1.163 / defence 1.050 | Botafogo attack 1.125 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 0.934. Data: 7 Coritiba games / 7 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 43% | Draw 28% | Botafogo 29%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Botafogo 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coritiba at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coritiba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Sunday 29 May 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 43% | Draw 28% | Botafogo 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Coritiba 1.39 / Botafogo 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 1.163 / def 1.050 | Botafogo attack 1.125 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.331 / away 0.934 • Poisson stance: Coritiba (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Botafogo xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Botafogo kick off?
Coritiba vs Botafogo kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 29 May 2022 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Botafogo?
Coritiba 1 - 0 Botafogo.
Where is Coritiba vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Botafogo part of?
Coritiba vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 43% chance of winning, Botafogo a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Coritiba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Coritiba and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Botafogo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Coritiba and Botafogo in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Coritiba's attack rating (1.16) and Botafogo's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Botafogo's attack versus Coritiba's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coritiba Win
43%
2.34
28%
3.59
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.49
1.10
Botafogo xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
7%
13.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.10 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Pre-Season
Botafogo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Coritiba and Botafogo runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2023, when Botafogo won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Coritiba's record when hosting Botafogo specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Coritiba
2
Draws
2
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Botafogo?
From 5 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 1, Botafogo have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Botafogo 2-2 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Botafogo?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Coritiba edge out Botafogo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba beat Botafogo 1-0 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.39 xG and Botafogo 1.10 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Botafogo landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 1.16 / defence 1.05 against Botafogo attack 1.12 / defence 0.90, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 43% | Draw 28% | Botafogo 29%, with Coritiba to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.