Corinthians 3-2 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Corinthians at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Corinthians vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Neo Química Arena plays host to Corinthians versus Cuiaba in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Sunday 14 November 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Corinthians's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Corinthians's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Neo Química Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cuiaba have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Cuiaba's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form favours the hosts. Corinthians's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Cuiaba's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Corinthians, 0 for Cuiaba and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2021, ended 2–1 with Corinthians winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Corinthians half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Cuiaba half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Corinthians 52% versus Cuiaba 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Corinthians 36% | Cuiaba 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Corinthians 0.95 xG and Cuiaba 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Corinthians attack 1.021 / defence 1.055 | Cuiaba attack 0.817 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 0.977 / away 0.922. Data: 31 Corinthians games / 31 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Corinthians 37% | Draw 34% | Cuiaba 29%. Fair-value odds: Corinthians 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Cuiaba 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Cuiaba's lower xG of 0.79 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Corinthians are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Corinthians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.74 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates are neutral: Corinthians 70% | Cuiaba 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Corinthians vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Neo Química Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Nov 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Corinthians 37% | Draw 34% | Cuiaba 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 34% | xG Corinthians 0.95 / Cuiaba 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Corinthians attack 1.021 / def 1.055 | Cuiaba attack 0.817 / def 0.952 | league avg home 0.977 / away 0.922 • Poisson stance: Corinthians (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Corinthians xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Cuiaba xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Corinthians vs Cuiaba kick off?
Corinthians vs Cuiaba kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 14 November 2021 at Neo Química Arena.
What was the final score in Corinthians vs Cuiaba?
Corinthians 3 - 2 Cuiaba.
Where is Corinthians vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Neo Química Arena.
What competition is Corinthians vs Cuiaba part of?
Corinthians vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Corinthians vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Corinthians a 37% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Corinthians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Corinthians and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Corinthians vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Cuiaba?
Record (1 meetings): Corinthians 1W | Draws 0 | Cuiaba 0W.
What form are Corinthians and Cuiaba in?
Corinthians (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Cuiaba (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Corinthians's attack at 1.02x the league average against Cuiaba's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cuiaba's attack (0.82x) against Corinthians's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
37%
2.69
34%
2.93
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Corinthians xG
Total xG
1.74
0.79
Cuiaba xG
2.69
37%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.94
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
11%
9.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.5 | 13.9 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Corinthians vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Corinthians and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Corinthians and 0.79 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Corinthians vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Corinthians come into this having played 31 games, going 12W 11D 8L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Cuiaba sit at 1.26 PPG from 31 outings (8W 15D 8L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Corinthians against 1.26 for Cuiaba. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Corinthians's home form reads 7W 4D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Cuiaba have taken 1.20 points per game from 15 outings (3W 9D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Corinthians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Corinthians are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.90 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Cuiaba in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Corinthians
Current Season
Cuiaba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Corinthians and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Corinthians have gone 12W 11D 8L in their last 31 games (1.52 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 8W 15D 8L in their last 31 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Corinthians at home or Cuiaba away?
Corinthians's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Corinthians at home: 1.67 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Corinthians or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Corinthians have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Corinthians have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cuiaba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Corinthians
2
Draws
1
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Cuiaba?
From 8 meetings on record, Corinthians have won 5, Cuiaba have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Corinthians and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2024, when Cuiaba 0-1 Corinthians.
Who has won more matches between Corinthians and Cuiaba?
Corinthians have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Corinthians 67%, Cuiaba 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Corinthians) and 33% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba in 47%; Cuiaba in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Corinthians home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Corinthians play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Corinthians's recent matches and 40% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Corinthians vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Corinthians's recent games and 33% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Corinthians and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Corinthians have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Corinthians edge out Cuiaba 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Corinthians beat Cuiaba 3-2 at Neo Química Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 0.95 xG and Cuiaba 0.79 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Corinthians beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cuiaba outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 1.02 / defence 1.05 against Cuiaba attack 0.82 / defence 0.95, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Corinthians 37% | Draw 34% | Cuiaba 29%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 36%, Cuiaba 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Corinthians's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Cuiaba's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Corinthians 1.52 PPG, Cuiaba 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Corinthians win broke the near-deadlock. Corinthians (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cuiaba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.