Corinthians 3-1 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Corinthians at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Corinthians vs Bahia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 24 as Corinthians welcome Bahia to Neo Química Arena. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 6 October 2021 at 01:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Corinthians stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Corinthians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Corinthians's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Neo Química Arena this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Bahia have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bahia's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Corinthians are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Corinthians, 0 for Bahia and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Jun 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Corinthians in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Bahia in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Corinthians 64% versus Bahia 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Corinthians 36% | Bahia 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Corinthians 1.44 xG and Bahia 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Corinthians attack 1.108 / defence 1.248 | Bahia attack 0.657 / defence 1.473. League average goals — home 0.883 / away 1.049. Bahia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.473 — this is suppressing Corinthians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Corinthians games / 22 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Corinthians 49% | Draw 31% | Bahia 21%. Fair-value odds: Corinthians 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | Bahia 4.76. Corinthians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Corinthians are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Corinthians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Corinthians 90% | Bahia 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Corinthians vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Neo Química Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Oct 2021, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Corinthians 49% | Draw 31% | Bahia 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Corinthians 1.44 / Bahia 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Corinthians attack 1.108 / def 1.248 | Bahia attack 0.657 / def 1.473 | league avg home 0.883 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Corinthians (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Corinthians xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Bahia xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Corinthians vs Bahia kick off?
Corinthians vs Bahia kicked off at 01:30 on Wednesday 6 October 2021 at Neo Química Arena.
What was the final score in Corinthians vs Bahia?
Corinthians 3 - 1 Bahia.
Where is Corinthians vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Neo Química Arena.
What competition is Corinthians vs Bahia part of?
Corinthians vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Corinthians vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Corinthians a 49% chance of winning, Bahia a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Corinthians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Corinthians and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Corinthians vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Bahia?
Record (1 meetings): Corinthians 0W | Draws 1 | Bahia 0W.
What form are Corinthians and Bahia in?
Corinthians (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. Bahia (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Corinthians's attack at 1.11x the league average against Bahia's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus Corinthians's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
49%
2.05
31%
3.27
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Corinthians xG
Total xG
2.30
0.86
Bahia xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
5%
20.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.4 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Corinthians vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Corinthians and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Corinthians and 0.86 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Corinthians vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Corinthians come into this having played 22 games, going 8W 10D 4L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-D. The sample for Corinthians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bahia sit at 1.05 PPG from 22 outings (6W 5D 11L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Corinthians carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Bahia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Corinthians's home form reads 3W 4D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Bahia have taken 0.80 points per game from 10 outings (2W 2D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Corinthians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Corinthians are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.14 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Corinthians have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Corinthians
Blended
Bahia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Corinthians and Bahia in coming into this match?
Corinthians have gone 8W 10D 4L in their last 22 games (1.55 PPG), while Bahia have gone 6W 5D 11L in their last 22 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Corinthians at home or Bahia away?
Corinthians's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Corinthians at home: 1.30 PPG; Bahia away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Corinthians or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Corinthians have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Bahia in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2023, when Bahia won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Corinthians's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Corinthians
4
Draws
3
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Bahia?
From 10 meetings on record, Corinthians have won 3, Bahia have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Corinthians and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Bahia 1-1 Corinthians.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Bahia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Corinthians 90%, Bahia 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Corinthians) and 30% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Bahia in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Corinthians home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Corinthians play Bahia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 90% of Corinthians's games and 30% of Bahia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Corinthians vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Corinthians's recent games and 30% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Corinthians and Bahia tend to score early?
Corinthians have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Bahia in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Corinthians cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bahia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Corinthians beat Bahia 3-1 at Neo Química Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.44 xG and Bahia 0.86 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Corinthians beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 1.11 / defence 1.25 against Bahia attack 0.66 / defence 1.47, drawn from 23/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Corinthians 49% | Draw 31% | Bahia 21%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 36%, Bahia 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Corinthians's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Bahia's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Corinthians arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points. Corinthians (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm. Bahia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.