Chapecoense-sc 0-4 Atletico-MG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chapecoense-sc at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Condá plays host to Chapecoense-sc versus Atletico-MG in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Thursday 2 April 2026 at 22:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atletico-MG's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Atletico-MG away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chapecoense-sc lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 1.47 xG and Atletico-MG 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.989 / defence 1.205 | Atletico-MG attack 0.706 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.025. Data: 7 Chapecoense-sc games / 46 Atletico-MG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 51% | Draw 27% | Atletico-MG 22%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Atletico-MG 4.55. Chapecoense-sc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chapecoense-sc as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chapecoense-sc if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Arena Condá • Kick-off: Thursday 2 Apr 2026, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 51% | Draw 27% | Atletico-MG 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Chapecoense-sc 1.47 / Atletico-MG 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.989 / def 1.205 | Atletico-MG attack 0.706 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Chapecoense-sc (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Chapecoense-sc xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Atletico-MG xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG kick off?
Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG kicked off at 22:00 on Thursday 2 April 2026 at Arena Condá.
What was the final score in Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG?
Chapecoense-sc 0 - 4 Atletico-MG.
Where is Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG being played?
The match is being played at Arena Condá.
What competition is Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG part of?
Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG?
Our statistical model gives Chapecoense-sc a 51% chance of winning, Atletico-MG a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chapecoense-sc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Chapecoense-sc and Atletico-MG will score (BTTS).
Will Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Atletico-MG?
Record (2 meetings): Chapecoense-sc 0W | Draws 2 | Atletico-MG 0W.
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Atletico-MG in?
Atletico-MG (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Atletico-MG away split: 0.50 PPG from 10 | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Chapecoense-sc's attack at 0.99x the league average against Atletico-MG's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atletico-MG's attack (0.71x) against Chapecoense-sc's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 7/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chapecoense-sc Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.74
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Chapecoense-sc xG
Total xG
2.34
0.87
Atletico-MG xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
5%
19.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.3 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Chapecoense-sc and Atletico-MG expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc and 0.87 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chapecoense-sc
Pre-Season
Atletico-MG
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico-MG won 0-4 on 2 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chapecoense-sc have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Atletico-MG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Chapecoense-sc
3
Draws
1
Atletico-MG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Atletico-MG?
From 4 meetings on record, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, Atletico-MG have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chapecoense-sc and Atletico-MG last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Atletico-MG 1-1 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Chapecoense-sc and Atletico-MG?
Atletico-MG have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chapecoense-sc home games / Atletico-MG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Atletico-MG run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Chapecoense-sc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico-MG beat Chapecoense-sc 0-4 at Arena Condá, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chapecoense-sc 1.47 xG and Atletico-MG 0.87 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Chapecoense-sc fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Atletico-MG outscored their 0.87 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chapecoense-sc attack 0.99 / defence 1.21 against Atletico-MG attack 0.71 / defence 0.97, drawn from 7/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chapecoense-sc 51% | Draw 27% | Atletico-MG 22%, with Chapecoense-sc to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Atletico-MG win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.