Ceara 1-2 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ceara vs Palmeiras encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ceara and Palmeiras meet at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 July 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Current Form
Ceara's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ceara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ceara at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Palmeiras (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palmeiras's form when playing away from home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Palmeiras arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Ceara, 2 for Palmeiras and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 3–2 with Ceara winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Ceara — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Palmeiras — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ceara 53% versus Palmeiras 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ceara 37% | Palmeiras 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 0.75 xG and Palmeiras 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 0.890 / defence 0.996 | Palmeiras attack 1.177 / defence 0.637. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 0.951. Palmeiras's defence strength of 0.637 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 Ceara games / 57 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ceara 24% | Draw 31% | Palmeiras 44%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 4.17 | Draw 3.23 | Palmeiras 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Ceara's lower xG of 0.75 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palmeiras if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.86 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Ceara 60% | Palmeiras 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ceara vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ceara 24% | Draw 31% | Palmeiras 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 35% | xG Ceara 0.75 / Palmeiras 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Ceara attack 0.890 / def 0.996 | Palmeiras attack 1.177 / def 0.637 | league avg home 1.318 / away 0.951 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Ceara xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Palmeiras xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ceara vs Palmeiras kick off?
Ceara vs Palmeiras kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Ceara vs Palmeiras?
Ceara 1 - 2 Palmeiras.
Where is Ceara vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Ceara vs Palmeiras part of?
Ceara vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Ceara vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Ceara a 24% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Ceara and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Ceara vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Palmeiras?
Record (3 meetings): Ceara 1W | Draws 0 | Palmeiras 2W.
What form are Ceara and Palmeiras in?
Ceara (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Palmeiras (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ceara's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Palmeiras's defensive record (0.64x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.75. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (1.18x) against Ceara's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
24%
4.09
31%
3.18
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Ceara xG
Total xG
1.86
1.11
Palmeiras xG
4.09
24%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
47%
2.11
Win to Nil
8%
12.46
21%
4.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 17.3 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.9 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ceara vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Ceara and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Ceara and 1.11 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Ceara vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ceara come into this having played 57 games, going 16W 26D 15L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Ceara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Palmeiras sit at 1.84 PPG from 57 outings (31W 12D 14L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Ceara — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Ceara's home form reads 12W 12D 4L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Ceara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Palmeiras have taken 1.75 points per game from 28 outings (14W 7D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ceara are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.56 scored and 0.98 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Palmeiras in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ceara
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ceara and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Ceara have gone 16W 26D 15L in their last 57 games (1.30 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 31W 12D 14L in their last 57 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ceara at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ceara at home: 1.71 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Ceara or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Palmeiras have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ceara have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Palmeiras — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ceara
0
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Palmeiras?
From 6 meetings on record, Ceara have won 1, Palmeiras have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ceara and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when Ceara 1-3 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Ceara and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ceara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ceara 57%, Palmeiras 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Ceara) and 46% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Ceara keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Palmeiras in 50%; Palmeiras in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ceara home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ceara play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Ceara's recent matches and 39% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ceara vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Ceara's recent games and 46% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ceara and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Ceara have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out Ceara 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Ceara 1-2 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 0.75 xG and Palmeiras 1.11 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Palmeiras outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.89 / defence 1.00 against Palmeiras attack 1.18 / defence 0.64, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ceara 24% | Draw 31% | Palmeiras 44%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 37%, Palmeiras 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ceara's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Palmeiras's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ceara (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.