Ceara 1-1 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ceara at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ceara vs Fortaleza EC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Fortaleza EC travel to Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo to take on Ceara. The game is scheduled for Thursday 6 November 2025, 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ceara stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Ceara's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fortaleza EC — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Fortaleza EC's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ceara 1.20 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Ceara: 4 wins from 5 previous clashes against 1 for Fortaleza EC, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jul 2025, ended 1–0 with Ceara winning.
The historical record gives Ceara a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ceara trading profile (31 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Fortaleza EC trading profile (31 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ceara 36% versus Fortaleza EC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ceara 26% | Fortaleza EC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 1.24 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 0.764 / defence 0.989 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.956 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 0.940. Ceara's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Ceara games / 68 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ceara 44% | Draw 29% | Fortaleza EC 27%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Fortaleza EC 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ceara as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ceara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ceara 20% | Fortaleza EC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ceara vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Nov 2025, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ceara 44% | Draw 29% | Fortaleza EC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Ceara 1.24 / Fortaleza EC 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Ceara attack 0.764 / def 0.989 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.956 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.413 / away 0.940 • Poisson stance: Ceara (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Ceara xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Fortaleza EC xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ceara vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Ceara vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 6 November 2025 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Ceara vs Fortaleza EC?
Ceara 1 - 1 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Ceara vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Ceara vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Ceara vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Ceara vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Ceara a 44% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ceara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Ceara and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Ceara vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Fortaleza EC?
Record (5 meetings): Ceara 4W | Draws 0 | Fortaleza EC 1W.
What form are Ceara and Fortaleza EC in?
Ceara (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Fortaleza EC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ceara's attack rating (0.76) and Fortaleza EC's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fortaleza EC's attack versus Ceara's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ceara Win
44%
2.26
29%
3.43
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Ceara xG
Total xG
2.13
0.89
Fortaleza EC xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
8%
12.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 10.6 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.1 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ceara vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Ceara and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Ceara and 0.89 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Ceara vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ceara's recent record stands at 10W 8D 13L from 31 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Fortaleza EC, meanwhile, have gone 8W 7D 16L across 31 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ceara on 1.23 PPG, Fortaleza EC on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ceara have managed 6W 3D 5L from 14 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortaleza EC's away record stands at 1W 5D 8L across 14 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fortaleza EC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ceara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ceara are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Fortaleza EC are on 1.00 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ceara
Current Season
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ceara and Fortaleza EC in coming into this match?
Ceara have gone 10W 8D 13L in their last 31 games (1.23 PPG), while Fortaleza EC have gone 8W 7D 16L in their last 31 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ceara at home or Fortaleza EC away?
Ceara's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ceara at home: 1.50 PPG; Fortaleza EC away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Ceara or Fortaleza EC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Fortaleza EC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ceara and Fortaleza EC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 6 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Nov 2021, when Ceara won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ceara's record when hosting Fortaleza EC specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Ceara
1
Draws
1
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Fortaleza EC?
From 6 meetings on record, Ceara have won 4, Fortaleza EC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ceara and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 6 November 2025, when Ceara 1-1 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Ceara and Fortaleza EC?
Ceara have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ceara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ceara 29%, Fortaleza EC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 14% (Ceara) and 57% (Fortaleza EC).
On the defensive side: Ceara keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Ceara have failed to score in 36% of games; Fortaleza EC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ceara home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ceara play Fortaleza EC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Ceara's recent matches and 64% of Fortaleza EC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ceara vs Fortaleza EC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Ceara's recent games and 57% of Fortaleza EC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ceara and Fortaleza EC tend to score early?
Ceara have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Fortaleza EC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ceara and Fortaleza EC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 32, as Ceara and Fortaleza EC drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.24 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.89 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.76 / defence 0.99 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.96 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ceara 44% | Draw 29% | Fortaleza EC 27%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 26%, Fortaleza EC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ceara's trading profile (31 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (31 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ceara 1.23 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.