Botafogo 0-1 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Botafogo at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Botafogo vs Cuiaba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Botafogo host Cuiaba at Estádio Nilton Santos in Serie A, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 October 2023 at 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Botafogo have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Botafogo at Estádio Nilton Santos this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nilton Santos. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Botafogo are significantly better at Estádio Nilton Santos than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cuiaba stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Cuiaba's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Botafogo have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Botafogo, 2 for Cuiaba and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 23 Jun 2023, ended 1–0 with Botafogo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Botafogo trading profile (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Cuiaba trading profile (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 39% versus Cuiaba 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Botafogo 38% | Cuiaba 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.40 xG and Cuiaba 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.166 / defence 0.802 | Cuiaba attack 0.885 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.091. Data: 66 Botafogo games / 67 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 50% | Draw 30% | Cuiaba 20%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Cuiaba 5.00. Botafogo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Botafogo at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Botafogo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Botafogo 50% | Cuiaba 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 50% | Draw 30% | Cuiaba 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Botafogo 1.40 / Cuiaba 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.166 / def 0.802 | Cuiaba attack 0.885 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Cuiaba xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Cuiaba kick off?
Botafogo vs Cuiaba kicked off at 23:00 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Cuiaba?
Botafogo 0 - 1 Cuiaba.
Where is Botafogo vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Cuiaba part of?
Botafogo vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 50% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Botafogo and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Cuiaba?
Record (3 meetings): Botafogo 1W | Draws 0 | Cuiaba 2W.
What form are Botafogo and Cuiaba in?
Botafogo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Cuiaba (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Botafogo's attack at 1.17x the league average against Cuiaba's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus Botafogo's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
50%
1.98
30%
3.33
20%
5.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.17
0.77
Cuiaba xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
5.11
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
5%
20.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.3 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Botafogo and 0.77 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Botafogo's recent record stands at 33W 13D 20L from 66 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Cuiaba, meanwhile, have gone 19W 18D 29L across 66 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-D-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Botafogo by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cuiaba heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Botafogo have managed 17W 6D 9L from 32 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cuiaba's away record stands at 9W 4D 19L across 32 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Botafogo are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.91 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Current Season
Cuiaba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 33W 13D 20L in their last 66 games (1.70 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 19W 18D 29L in their last 66 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Cuiaba away?
Botafogo's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 1.78 PPG; Cuiaba away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Botafogo and Cuiaba runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Botafogo's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Botafogo
1
Draws
3
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Cuiaba?
From 6 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 2, Cuiaba have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when Botafogo 0-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Cuiaba?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 38%, Cuiaba 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 34% for Botafogo and 34% for Cuiaba.
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Cuiaba in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Botafogo's recent matches and 38% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Botafogo's recent games and 34% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Botafogo have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cuiaba defy the odds to beat Botafogo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba beat Botafogo 0-1 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.40 xG and Cuiaba 0.77 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Botafogo fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.17 / defence 0.80 against Cuiaba attack 0.89 / defence 0.84, drawn from 66/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 50% | Draw 30% | Cuiaba 20%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Cuiaba win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 38%, Cuiaba 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cuiaba's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Cuiaba winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Botafogo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Cuiaba (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.