Bahia 2-1 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bahia at 71%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs RB Bragantino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
RB Bragantino make the trip to Arena Fonte Nova to face Bahia in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Bahia (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bahia have posted 8W 1D 1L at Arena Fonte Nova — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Fonte Nova. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Bahia are significantly better at Arena Fonte Nova than their overall form suggests.
RB Bragantino's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
RB Bragantino away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Bahia, 0.90 for RB Bragantino — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Bahia 3W, RB Bragantino 2W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Jun 2025, ended 3–0 with Bahia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bahia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
RB Bragantino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 54% versus RB Bragantino 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 52% | RB Bragantino 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 2.12 xG and RB Bragantino 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.185 / defence 0.757 | RB Bragantino attack 0.919 / defence 1.254. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 0.962. RB Bragantino bring a strong defensive rating of 1.254 — this is suppressing Bahia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Bahia's defence rating of 0.757 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 68 Bahia games / 68 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 71% | Draw 19% | RB Bragantino 10%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 1.41 | Draw 5.26 | RB Bragantino 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Bahia (71%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bahia 40% | RB Bragantino 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 71% | Draw 19% | RB Bragantino 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 43% | xG Bahia 2.12 / RB Bragantino 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.185 / def 0.757 | RB Bragantino attack 0.919 / def 1.254 | league avg home 1.423 / away 0.962 • Poisson stance: Bahia (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.67
RB Bragantino xG
43%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Bahia vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs RB Bragantino?
Bahia 2 - 1 RB Bragantino.
Where is Bahia vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs RB Bragantino part of?
Bahia vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 71% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 10% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Bahia and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and RB Bragantino?
Record (7 meetings): Bahia 3W | Draws 2 | RB Bragantino 2W.
What form are Bahia and RB Bragantino in?
Bahia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. RB Bragantino (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bahia's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against RB Bragantino's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.12. Flip it around — RB Bragantino's attack (0.92x) against Bahia's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 1-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
71%
1.41
19%
5.39
10%
9.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
3 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.79
0.67
RB Bragantino xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.39
19%
Draw
9.52
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
12%
8.30
Win to Nil
36%
2.75
1%
79.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 8.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Bahia and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Bahia and 0.67 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs RB Bragantino?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 68 outings, Bahia have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 29W 15D 24L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
RB Bragantino's form line: 20W 20D 28L from 68 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Bahia against 1.18 for RB Bragantino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bahia have posted 2.12 PPG from 34 outings (22W 6D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 6W 9D 19L from 34 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bahia are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.15 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RB Bragantino in 63%.
Last 68 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 29W 15D 24L in their last 68 games (1.50 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 20W 20D 28L in their last 68 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or RB Bragantino away?
Bahia's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 2.12 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Bahia or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bahia have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bahia won 4-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against RB Bragantino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Bahia
2
Draws
2
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and RB Bragantino?
From 9 meetings on record, Bahia have won 5, RB Bragantino have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Bahia 2-0 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and RB Bragantino?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 41%, RB Bragantino 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Bahia) and 50% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; RB Bragantino in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play RB Bragantino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Bahia's recent matches and 65% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Bahia's recent games and 50% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bahia edge out RB Bragantino 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat RB Bragantino 2-1 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 2.12 xG and RB Bragantino 0.67 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.19 / defence 0.76 against RB Bragantino attack 0.92 / defence 1.25, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 71% | Draw 19% | RB Bragantino 10%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 52%, RB Bragantino 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.50 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bahia win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.