Bahia 1-0 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs RB Bragantino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
RB Bragantino make the trip to Arena Fonte Nova to face Bahia in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 May 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
Bahia (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bahia have posted 5W 2D 3L at Arena Fonte Nova — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Bahia are significantly better at Arena Fonte Nova than their overall form suggests.
RB Bragantino's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
RB Bragantino away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Bahia, 1.00 for RB Bragantino — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Bahia 1W, RB Bragantino 1W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 4–0 with Bahia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bahia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
RB Bragantino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 47% versus RB Bragantino 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 50% | RB Bragantino 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.26 xG and RB Bragantino 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.027 / defence 0.877 | RB Bragantino attack 1.043 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.250 / away 1.091. Data: 43 Bahia games / 43 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 41% | Draw 32% | RB Bragantino 27%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | RB Bragantino 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bahia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 40% | RB Bragantino 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 41% | Draw 32% | RB Bragantino 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Bahia 1.26 / RB Bragantino 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.027 / def 0.877 | RB Bragantino attack 1.043 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.250 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Bahia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
1.00
RB Bragantino xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Bahia vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs RB Bragantino?
Bahia 1 - 0 RB Bragantino.
Where is Bahia vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs RB Bragantino part of?
Bahia vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 41% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bahia and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and RB Bragantino?
Record (4 meetings): Bahia 1W | Draws 2 | RB Bragantino 1W.
What form are Bahia and RB Bragantino in?
Bahia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. RB Bragantino (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bahia's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against RB Bragantino's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — RB Bragantino's attack (1.04x) against Bahia's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
41%
2.47
32%
3.12
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.26
1.00
RB Bragantino xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
15%
6.70
8%
12.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Bahia and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Bahia and 1.00 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Bahia have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 12W 8D 18L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
RB Bragantino's form line: 17W 11D 10L from 38 games, 1.63 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
Put side by side, RB Bragantino are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bahia.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bahia have posted 1.53 PPG from 19 outings (8W 5D 6L).
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 6W 6D 7L from 19 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Bahia are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.29 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: RB Bragantino in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 12W 8D 18L in their last 38 games (1.16 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 17W 11D 10L in their last 38 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or RB Bragantino away?
Bahia's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.53 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Bahia or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bahia have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bahia won 4-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against RB Bragantino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Bahia
2
Draws
2
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and RB Bragantino?
From 9 meetings on record, Bahia have won 5, RB Bragantino have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Bahia 2-0 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and RB Bragantino?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 58%, RB Bragantino 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Bahia) and 32% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; RB Bragantino in 32%; RB Bragantino in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play RB Bragantino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Bahia's recent matches and 42% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Bahia's recent games and 32% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bahia edge out RB Bragantino 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat RB Bragantino 1-0 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.26 xG and RB Bragantino 1.00 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. RB Bragantino landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.03 / defence 0.88 against RB Bragantino attack 1.04 / defence 0.98, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 41% | Draw 32% | RB Bragantino 27%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 50%, RB Bragantino 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Bragantino arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Bahia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bahia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.